TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12473713
Played Aug 22Finished
Jean-Baptiste Cousin
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211411711––––
Jachym Sebl
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:14 and never touched — 58.8% is still 58.8%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
58.8%
58.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingJean-Baptiste Cousin above · Jachym Sebl below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 46 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Jachym Sebl at 58.8%
46 points played in total.
H2H Jean-Baptiste Cousin 8–12 Jachym Sebl Jean-Baptiste Cousin has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 02:14What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sebl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-12 in 20
Sebl
Correct
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cousin 1434 vs Sebl 1518
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cousin 20% vs Sebl 60%
Sebl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cousin 30% vs Sebl 60%
Sebl
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cousin -2 · Sebl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sebl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCousin 2.10 / Sebl 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Sebl)+3.0pp
TT Cup · #12473713
Cousin2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 31 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back33% 17 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Sebl1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 76 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it98% 53 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it76% 60 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCousin3wins
AwaySebl7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSebl leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCousinn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwaySebl70%7 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cousin0Sebl10n = 10Sebl took 10 of 10
S2Cousin4Sebl6n = 10Sebl took 6 of 10
S3Cousin3Sebl7n = 10Sebl took 7 of 10
S4Cousin3Sebl2n = 5Cousin took 3 of 5
S5Cousin2Sebl1n = 3Cousin took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricCousinSeblC − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match29.437.1−7.7per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCousinSeblBasisWin rate · lifetime241 / 451 vs 298 / 63953.4%46.6%241 / 451 vs 298 / 639Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.535.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SeblCousin 2.10/Sebl 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.8%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 10 · 21:58J. Cousin—91211113J. Sebl—1110771
LAug 10 · 20:55J. Cousin—7550J. Sebl—1111113
WAug 7 · 22:30J. Cousin—411711113J. Sebl—11811782
LAug 7 · 21:25J. Cousin—671161J. Sebl—11111113
LJul 7 · 18:50J. Cousin—5530J. Sebl—1111113
WMay 11 · 20:25J. Cousin—411111113J. Sebl—11711832
LApr 28 · 20:25J. Cousin—108110J. Sebl—1211133
LApr 26 · 07:55J. Cousin—5640J. Sebl—1111113
LApr 23 · 19:55J. Cousin—411111132J. Sebl—117513113
LApr 15 · 18:50J. Cousin—91150J. Sebl—1113113
J. Cousin10
WAug 25 · 22:25L. Jirka1.57145571J. Cousin2.25121111113WAug 25 · 21:25P. Kubat2.255990J. Cousin1.571111113LAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik1.5381080J. Cousin2.381112113WAug 23 · 13:58V. Koutnik1.8381181192J. Cousin1.83119118113LAug 23 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.91111110113J. Cousin1.80971221LAug 23 · 12:25B. Budik1.761112113J. Cousin1.9051080LAug 23 · 11:25J. Cousin1.801111108102P. Vodal1.91961211123LAug 22 · 13:54A. Jr1.8011116113J. Cousin1.91891181LAug 22 · 11:55J. Cousin1.36128121192A. Jr3.001411108113
J. Sebl10
WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551
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