TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12472956
Played Aug 22Finished
Jean-Baptiste Cousin
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12148111210118911
Ales Brandtl Jr
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:14 and never touched — 78.8% is still 78.8%
Graded at full timeJean-Baptiste Cousin to win
78.8%
78.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJean-Baptiste Cousin above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-10
Point 105 set 5, 9-10 — our read held Jean-Baptiste Cousin at 78.8%
105 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jean-Baptiste Cousin 12–6 Ales Brandtl Jr Ales Brandtl Jr has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:14What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Cousin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Cousin
Wrong
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cousin 1447 vs Jr 1361
Cousin
Wrong
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cousin 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cousin 30% vs Jr 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cousin -1 · Jr -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Cousin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cousin form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCousin 1.36 / Jr 3.00
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Cousin)+10.0pp
TT Cup · #12472956
Cousin1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 81 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it80% 61 of 76
Jr3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 68 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back30% 29 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCousin8wins
AwayJr2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCousin leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCousin87.5%7 of 8
AwayJrn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cousin8Jr2n = 10Cousin took 8 of 10
S2Cousin6Jr4n = 10Cousin took 6 of 10
S3Cousin7Jr3n = 10Cousin took 7 of 10
S4Cousin5Jr2n = 7Cousin took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCousinJrC − JBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.433.0+6.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCousinJrBasisWin rate · lifetime241 / 450 vs 251 / 53853.6%46.7%241 / 450 vs 251 / 538Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CousinCousin 1.36/Jr 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
78.8%
Cousin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 17:20J. Cousin—1111113A. Jr—9560
WAug 21 · 14:50J. Cousin—11811113A. Jr—811551
LJul 8 · 21:50J. Cousin—1014871A. Jr—121211113
WJul 8 · 18:20J. Cousin—71111113A. Jr—118731
WMay 8 · 20:50J. Cousin—1411123A. Jr—128100
WApr 2 · 22:00J. Cousin—1111113A. Jr—3870
LApr 2 · 20:50J. Cousin—126101172A. Jr—1011125113
WMar 26 · 19:50J. Cousin—117115133A. Jr—911411112
WFeb 12 · 16:50J. Cousin—11511113A. Jr—711481
WFeb 6 · 21:25J. Cousin—13115113A. Jr—1171141
J. Cousin10
WAug 25 · 22:25L. Jirka1.57145571J. Cousin2.25121111113WAug 25 · 21:25P. Kubat2.255990J. Cousin1.571111113LAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik1.5381080J. Cousin2.381112113WAug 23 · 13:58V. Koutnik1.8381181192J. Cousin1.83119118113LAug 23 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.91111110113J. Cousin1.80971221LAug 23 · 12:25B. Budik1.761112113J. Cousin1.9051080LAug 23 · 11:25J. Cousin1.801111108102P. Vodal1.91961211123LAug 22 · 13:54A. Jr1.8011116113J. Cousin1.91891181LAug 22 · 12:55J. Cousin2.102470J. Sebl1.671111113
A. Jr10
LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143LSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123WSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113LSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113WAug 22 · 13:54A. Jr1.8011116113J. Cousin1.91891181
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