TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13011301
Played Aug 25Finished
Martin Boltik
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012811––––
Jean-Baptiste Cousin
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:16 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Boltik to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Boltik above · Jean-Baptiste Cousin below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 60 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Martin Boltik at 60.9%
60 points played in total.
H2H Martin Boltik 3–4 Jean-Baptiste Cousin Martin Boltik has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Boltik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boltik 1577 vs Cousin 1412
Boltik
Wrong
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boltik 80% vs Cousin 20%
Boltik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boltik 60% vs Cousin 20%
Boltik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Boltik +3 · Cousin +1
Boltik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Boltik) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cousin form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoltik 1.53 / Cousin 2.38
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Boltik)+6.0pp
TT Cup · #13011301
Boltik1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 23 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Cousin2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 32 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back31% 17 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBoltik3wins
AwayCousin4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderCousin leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoltik75%3 of 4
AwayCousin100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boltik4Cousin3n = 7Boltik took 4 of 7
S2Boltik5Cousin2n = 7Boltik took 5 of 7
S3Boltik1Cousin6n = 7Cousin took 6 of 7
S4Boltik4Cousin2n = 6Boltik took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricBoltikCousinB − CBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match40.640.3+0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoltikCousinBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 112 vs 239 / 44559.8%53.7%67 / 112 vs 239 / 445Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoltikBoltik 1.53/Cousin 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.8%
Boltik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cousin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik—81080J. Cousin—1112113
WAug 18 · 19:55M. Boltik—11711113J. Cousin—611791
WFeb 6 · 23:45M. Boltik—121111103J. Cousin—1081371
LFeb 6 · 19:55M. Boltik—9115101J. Cousin—11411123
LJan 18 · 19:50M. Boltik—81481182J. Cousin—1112115113
LJan 2 · 22:35M. Boltik—111116772J. Cousin—991811113
WJan 2 · 19:50M. Boltik—11115113J. Cousin—961151
M. Boltik10
WAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102LAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142WAug 18 · 22:40J. Slavicek1.5388111542M. Boltik2.381111713113WAug 18 · 20:55M. Boltik1.83311115113L. Jirka1.8311171172WAug 18 · 19:55M. Boltik1.8311711113J. Cousin1.83611791LAug 18 · 18:55M. Boltik2.38911521J. Slavicek1.5311611113WAug 2 · 21:54M. Boltik1.44511911113R. Zeman2.6311611472WAug 2 · 20:20T. Jr3.256960M. Boltik1.331111113WAug 2 · 19:50Z. Dusek2.6381380M. Boltik1.441115113
J. Cousin10
WAug 25 · 22:25L. Jirka1.57145571J. Cousin2.25121111113WAug 25 · 21:25P. Kubat2.255990J. Cousin1.571111113LAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 23 · 13:58V. Koutnik1.8381181192J. Cousin1.83119118113LAug 23 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.91111110113J. Cousin1.80971221LAug 23 · 12:25B. Budik1.761112113J. Cousin1.9051080LAug 23 · 11:25J. Cousin1.801111108102P. Vodal1.91961211123LAug 22 · 13:54A. Jr1.8011116113J. Cousin1.91891181LAug 22 · 12:55J. Cousin2.102470J. Sebl1.671111113LAug 18 · 19:55M. Boltik1.8311711113J. Cousin1.83611791
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