TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13011891
Played Aug 25Finished
Martin Boltik
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511611119711––
Lukas Jirka
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:07 and never touched — 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Boltik to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Boltik above · Lukas Jirka below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Martin Boltik at 61.8%
71 points played in total.
H2H Martin Boltik 3–3 Lukas Jirka Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:07What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Boltik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boltik 1565 vs Jirka 1580
Jirka
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boltik 80% vs Jirka 60%
Boltik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boltik 70% vs Jirka 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Boltik +1 · Jirka +3
Jirka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Boltik) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jirka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoltik 1.61 / Jirka 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Boltik)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13011891
Boltik1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 23 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Jirka2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As underdog58% won 19 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBoltik3wins
AwayJirka3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoltikn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayJirka50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boltik0Jirka6n = 6Jirka took 6 of 6
S2Boltik4Jirka2n = 6Boltik took 4 of 6
S3Boltik4Jirka2n = 6Boltik took 4 of 6
S4Boltik1Jirka4n = 5Jirka took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricBoltikJirkaB − JBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set06−6of 6Avg pointsper match33.237.7−4.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoltikJirkaBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 113 vs 100 / 19159.3%52.4%67 / 113 vs 100 / 191Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoltikBoltik 1.61/Jirka 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Boltik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jirka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik—561171L. Jirka—11119113
WAug 18 · 20:55M. Boltik—311115113L. Jirka—11171172
LApr 25 · 20:55M. Boltik—511361L. Jirka—11611113
WNov 8 · 21:50M. Boltik—51112113L. Jirka—1141051
LFeb 1 · 19:50M. Boltik—8830L. Jirka—1111113
WJan 10 · 19:50M. Boltik—711116113L. Jirka—11771192
M. Boltik10
WAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102WAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142LAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik1.5381080J. Cousin2.381112113WAug 18 · 22:40J. Slavicek1.5388111542M. Boltik2.381111713113WAug 18 · 20:55M. Boltik1.83311115113L. Jirka1.8311171172WAug 18 · 19:55M. Boltik1.8311711113J. Cousin1.83611791LAug 18 · 18:55M. Boltik2.38911521J. Slavicek1.5311611113WAug 2 · 21:54M. Boltik1.44511911113R. Zeman2.6311611472WAug 2 · 20:20T. Jr3.256960M. Boltik1.331111113WAug 2 · 19:50Z. Dusek2.6381380M. Boltik1.441115113
L. Jirka10
LAug 25 · 22:25L. Jirka1.57145571J. Cousin2.25121111113WAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 25 · 19:25L. Jirka1.501111113P. Kubat2.502520WAug 18 · 22:10J. Cousin1.8313111051L. Jirka1.8315312113LAug 18 · 20:55M. Boltik1.83311115113L. Jirka1.8311171172LAug 18 · 20:25J. Slavicek1.73711119113L. Jirka2.0011871182LAug 18 · 19:25L. Jirka1.731397131J. Cousin2.00111111153WAug 6 · 21:55L. Jirka1.551111113J. Cousin2.307860WAug 6 · 20:20P. Kubat2.388850L. Jirka1.531111113WAug 6 · 19:50T. Rein3.257890L. Jirka1.331111113
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