TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12350563
Played Aug 2Finished
Zdenek Dusek
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111315811––––
Martin Boltik
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:23 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Boltik to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Dusek above · Martin Boltik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 66 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Martin Boltik at 72.5%
66 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Dusek 4–7 Martin Boltik Zdenek Dusek has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Boltik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Boltik
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dusek 1417 vs Boltik 1567
Boltik
Correct
both rated, 151 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dusek 20% vs Boltik 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dusek 30% vs Boltik 60%
Boltik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dusek -3 · Boltik -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Boltik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boltik form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDusek 2.63 / Boltik 1.44
Signal prob.28% / 73%
Edge (Boltik)+8.0pp
TT Cup · #12350563
Dusek2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 78 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back27% 23 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 44
Boltik1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 25 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDusek3wins
AwayBoltik7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBoltik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDusek60%3 of 5
AwayBoltik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dusek5Boltik5n = 10split evenly
S2Dusek8Boltik2n = 10Dusek took 8 of 10
S3Dusek3Boltik7n = 10Boltik took 7 of 10
S4Dusek2Boltik7n = 9Boltik took 7 of 9
S5Dusek1Boltik3n = 4Boltik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDusekBoltikD − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.339.2+1.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDusekBoltikBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 471 vs 62 / 11141.6%55.9%196 / 471 vs 62 / 111Avg sets wonper match1.82.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.340.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoltikDusek 2.63/Boltik 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.5%
Boltik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Boltik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 21 · 22:28Z. Dusek—711111152M. Boltik—119135113
WJul 21 · 20:25Z. Dusek—1111105113M. Boltik—84121152
LJul 19 · 20:50Z. Dusek—7111171M. Boltik—11613113
LJun 26 · 20:25Z. Dusek—1112591M. Boltik—21411113
LMar 2 · 19:50Z. Dusek—511991M. Boltik—11211113
WFeb 28 · 19:50Z. Dusek—111112113M. Boltik—391451
LJan 10 · 19:55Z. Dusek—51111652M. Boltik—117811113
WNov 15 · 20:55Z. Dusek—1113113M. Boltik—21160
LOct 31 · 19:50Z. Dusek—8101191M. Boltik—11129113
LOct 17 · 19:20Z. Dusek—1111111042M. Boltik—391312113
Z. Dusek10
WAug 31 · 21:30M. Dlask1.60111241182Z. Dusek2.20714119113LAug 31 · 20:50L. Vich1.7311714113Z. Dusek2.009111241WAug 31 · 19:50Z. Dusek1.5011119113M. Dlask2.50661161LAug 31 · 18:20S. Matousch2.251111123Z. Dusek1.5736100WAug 27 · 21:28Z. Dusek2.2511135113T. Barsa1.578111171LAug 27 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil1.61821113113Z. Dusek2.20111161152WAug 27 · 19:50Z. Dusek2.38118411113T. Barsa1.5361111562LAug 27 · 18:20T. Jr1.331111153Z. Dusek3.2546130LAug 24 · 21:23T. Jr1.361111123Z. Dusek3.0067100LAug 24 · 20:50Z. Dusek2.2511117892T. Barsa1.57791111113
M. Boltik10
WAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102LAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142LAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik1.5381080J. Cousin2.381112113WAug 18 · 22:40J. Slavicek1.5388111542M. Boltik2.381111713113WAug 18 · 20:55M. Boltik1.83311115113L. Jirka1.8311171172WAug 18 · 19:55M. Boltik1.8311711113J. Cousin1.83611791LAug 18 · 18:55M. Boltik2.38911521J. Slavicek1.5311611113WAug 2 · 21:54M. Boltik1.44511911113R. Zeman2.6311611472WAug 2 · 20:20T. Jr3.256960M. Boltik1.331111113
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