TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12350525
Played Aug 2Finished
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911611––––
Martin Boltik
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:13 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Boltik to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Martin Boltik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 54 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Martin Boltik at 75.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 0–5 Martin Boltik Tomas Cerveny Jr has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:13What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Boltik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Boltik
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1481 vs Boltik 1568
Boltik
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 80% vs Boltik 20%
Jr
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 60% vs Boltik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +4 · Boltik +1
Jr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Boltik) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boltik form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 3.25 / Boltik 1.33
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Boltik)+3.0pp
TT Cup · #12350525
Jr3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 29 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back7% 3 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Boltik1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 25 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeJr0wins
AwayBoltik5wins
1 of 5 to a deciderBoltik leads 5–0, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBoltik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr2Boltik3n = 5Boltik took 3 of 5
S2Jr1Boltik4n = 5Boltik took 4 of 5
S3Jr2Boltik3n = 5Boltik took 3 of 5
S4Jr0Boltik4n = 4Boltik took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricJrBoltikJ − BBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match33.042.2−9.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrBoltikBasisWin rate · lifetime340 / 621 vs 63 / 11254.8%56.3%340 / 621 vs 63 / 112Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.940.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoltikJr 3.25/Boltik 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.9%
Boltik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Boltik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LFeb 28 · 21:50T. Jr—11840M. Boltik—1311113
LFeb 14 · 23:05T. Jr—13411672M. Boltik—1111611113
LFeb 14 · 19:50T. Jr—751151M. Boltik—11115113
LJan 16 · 19:55T. Jr—1165111M. Boltik—51111133
LOct 31 · 20:20T. Jr—10155101M. Boltik—121311123
T. Jr10
WSep 6 · 22:04Z. Vyskocil1.6711111010112T. Jr2.10371212133LSep 6 · 20:55T. Jr1.73116771Z. Vyskocil2.0081111113LSep 6 · 19:55T. Jr2.00811991L. Vich1.7311811113LSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530WSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143WSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881WSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113WAug 30 · 21:55Z. Vyskocil1.807270T. Jr1.901111113LAug 30 · 20:50T. Jr1.8012514101Z. Vyskocil1.91141112123
M. Boltik10
WAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102LAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142LAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik1.5381080J. Cousin2.381112113WAug 18 · 22:40J. Slavicek1.5388111542M. Boltik2.381111713113WAug 18 · 20:55M. Boltik1.83311115113L. Jirka1.8311171172WAug 18 · 19:55M. Boltik1.8311711113J. Cousin1.83611791LAug 18 · 18:55M. Boltik2.38911521J. Slavicek1.5311611113WAug 2 · 21:54M. Boltik1.44511911113R. Zeman2.6311611472WAug 2 · 19:50Z. Dusek2.6381380M. Boltik1.441115113
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