TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12454482
Played Aug 18Finished
Lukas Jirka
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
13119117111315––
Jean-Baptiste Cousin
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Jirka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Jirka above · Jean-Baptiste Cousin below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 90 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Lukas Jirka at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Jirka 8–9 Jean-Baptiste Cousin Lukas Jirka has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:40What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jirka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-9 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jirka 1583 vs Cousin 1483
Jirka
Wrong
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jirka 80% vs Cousin 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jirka 50% vs Cousin 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jirka +3 · Cousin -1
Jirka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jirka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cousin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJirka 1.73 / Cousin 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jirka)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #12454482
Jirka1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 16 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Cousin2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 30 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back32% 16 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJirka5wins
AwayCousin5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJirka50%3 of 6
AwayCousin50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jirka6Cousin4n = 10Jirka took 6 of 10
S2Jirka5Cousin5n = 10split evenly
S3Jirka6Cousin4n = 10Jirka took 6 of 10
S4Jirka3Cousin3n = 6split evenly
S5Jirka1Cousin3n = 4Cousin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJirkaCousinJ − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.435.6+0.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJirkaCousinBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 184 vs 239 / 44552.2%53.7%96 / 184 vs 239 / 445Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JirkaJirka 1.73/Cousin 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jirka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cousin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 6 · 21:55L. Jirka—1111113J. Cousin—7860
LAug 6 · 18:50L. Jirka—11511482J. Cousin—911811113
WJun 18 · 22:00L. Jirka—115812113J. Cousin—411111062
LJun 18 · 18:20L. Jirka—7990J. Cousin—1111113
LMar 8 · 12:20L. Jirka—8640J. Cousin—1111113
WDec 3 · 19:50L. Jirka—1111113J. Cousin—6990
WDec 2 · 20:25L. Jirka—81111113J. Cousin—115881
LNov 30 · 11:20L. Jirka—11611772J. Cousin—211711113
WNov 20 · 22:45L. Jirka—9111393J. Cousin—1191181
LNov 20 · 20:10L. Jirka—11117962J. Cousin—251111113
L. Jirka10
LAug 25 · 22:25L. Jirka1.57145571J. Cousin2.25121111113WAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 25 · 19:25L. Jirka1.501111113P. Kubat2.502520WAug 18 · 22:10J. Cousin1.8313111051L. Jirka1.8315312113LAug 18 · 20:55M. Boltik1.83311115113L. Jirka1.8311171172LAug 18 · 20:25J. Slavicek1.73711119113L. Jirka2.0011871182WAug 6 · 21:55L. Jirka1.551111113J. Cousin2.307860WAug 6 · 20:20P. Kubat2.388850L. Jirka1.531111113WAug 6 · 19:50T. Rein3.257890L. Jirka1.331111113
J. Cousin10
WAug 25 · 22:25L. Jirka1.57145571J. Cousin2.25121111113WAug 25 · 21:25P. Kubat2.255990J. Cousin1.571111113LAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik1.5381080J. Cousin2.381112113WAug 23 · 13:58V. Koutnik1.8381181192J. Cousin1.83119118113LAug 23 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.91111110113J. Cousin1.80971221LAug 23 · 12:25B. Budik1.761112113J. Cousin1.9051080LAug 23 · 11:25J. Cousin1.801111108102P. Vodal1.91961211123LAug 18 · 22:10J. Cousin1.8313111051L. Jirka1.8315312113LAug 6 · 21:55L. Jirka1.551111113J. Cousin2.307860
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