TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13011591
Played Aug 25Finished
Petr Kubat
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511911911––––
Jean-Baptiste Cousin
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJean-Baptiste Cousin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Kubat above · Jean-Baptiste Cousin below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Jean-Baptiste Cousin at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Petr Kubat 6–10 Jean-Baptiste Cousin Petr Kubat has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:46What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cousin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Cousin
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubat 1406 vs Cousin 1405
Kubat
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubat 20% vs Cousin 40%
Cousin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubat 50% vs Cousin 20%
Kubat
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubat -2 · Cousin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Cousin) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cousin form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubat 2.25 / Cousin 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Cousin)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13011591
Kubat2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 15 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back11% 3 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Cousin1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 81 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it79% 61 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubat4wins
AwayCousin6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCousin leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubat60%3 of 5
AwayCousin80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubat5Cousin5n = 10split evenly
S2Kubat5Cousin5n = 10split evenly
S3Kubat5Cousin5n = 10split evenly
S4Kubat3Cousin6n = 9Cousin took 6 of 9
S5Kubat2Cousin2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubatCousinK − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.541.1−2.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubatCousinBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 241 vs 239 / 44636.5%53.6%88 / 241 vs 239 / 446Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CousinKubat 2.25/Cousin 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Cousin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cousin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 20:25P. Kubat—913811113J. Cousin—111111582
WAug 6 · 19:20P. Kubat—11115113J. Cousin—771151
LJun 25 · 19:55P. Kubat—631181J. Cousin—11119113
LMay 11 · 20:55P. Kubat—311121J. Cousin—11711113
LApr 15 · 21:25P. Kubat—118951J. Cousin—81111113
WApr 15 · 20:20P. Kubat—1211153J. Cousin—106130
LMar 16 · 23:35P. Kubat—1061161J. Cousin—12115113
WMar 16 · 21:55P. Kubat—117117123J. Cousin—811911102
LMar 8 · 10:30P. Kubat—111181162J. Cousin—531113113
LMar 8 · 09:20P. Kubat—911141162J. Cousin—1113125113
P. Kubat10
WAug 27 · 17:25P. Kubat1.9114711143P. Vodal1.8012119121WAug 27 · 16:50P. Kubat2.1011119113P. Vodal1.67741181LAug 27 · 15:20A. Jr2.7551111113P. Kubat1.40119661LAug 27 · 14:50T. Rein1.331111113P. Kubat3.253540LAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102LAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142LAug 25 · 19:25L. Jirka1.501111113P. Kubat2.502520WAug 14 · 13:30P. Kubat1.36119611113A. Jr3.0061111292LAug 14 · 12:50P. Kubat2.0011126562P. Vodal1.739101111113LAug 14 · 11:20T. Rein1.3311118113P. Kubat3.25681151
J. Cousin10
WAug 25 · 22:25L. Jirka1.57145571J. Cousin2.25121111113LAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik1.5381080J. Cousin2.381112113WAug 23 · 13:58V. Koutnik1.8381181192J. Cousin1.83119118113LAug 23 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.91111110113J. Cousin1.80971221LAug 23 · 12:25B. Budik1.761112113J. Cousin1.9051080LAug 23 · 11:25J. Cousin1.801111108102P. Vodal1.91961211123LAug 22 · 13:54A. Jr1.8011116113J. Cousin1.91891181LAug 22 · 12:55J. Cousin2.102470J. Sebl1.671111113LAug 22 · 11:55J. Cousin1.36128121192A. Jr3.001411108113
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