TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12428535
Played Aug 14Finished
Tomas Rein
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116118811115––
Petr Kubat
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:20 and never touched — 74.9% is still 74.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Rein to win
74.9%
74.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Petr Kubat below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 71 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Tomas Rein at 74.9%
71 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 5–1 Petr Kubat Petr Kubat has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:20What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Rein
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Rein
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1500 vs Kubat 1435
Rein
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 80% vs Kubat 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 60% vs Kubat 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein +4 · Kubat +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Rein) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubat form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 1.33 / Kubat 3.25
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Rein)-1.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #12428535
Rein1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 69 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it91% 40 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it71% 53 of 75
Kubat3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 18 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeRein5wins
AwayKubat1wins
2 of 6 to a deciderRein leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRein80%4 of 5
AwayKubatn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein5Kubat1n = 6Rein took 5 of 6
S2Rein4Kubat2n = 6Rein took 4 of 6
S3Rein6Kubat0n = 6Rein took 6 of 6
S4Rein1Kubat2n = 3Kubat took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricReinKubatR − KBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match39.029.7+9.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinKubatBasisWin rate · lifetime392 / 822 vs 95 / 25647.7%37.1%392 / 822 vs 95 / 256Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ReinRein 1.33/Kubat 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.4%
Rein · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rein won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 7 · 21:58T. Rein—1111113P. Kubat—8520
WAug 7 · 20:55T. Rein—13511113P. Kubat—1111561
WAug 6 · 21:25T. Rein—1111113P. Kubat—2460
LAug 6 · 18:20T. Rein—11912582P. Kubat—4111011113
WMay 20 · 17:30T. Rein—1012116113P. Kubat—121051192
WMay 20 · 16:20T. Rein—1111113P. Kubat—7890
T. Rein10
WSep 6 · 22:35T. Rein1.921211113L. Vich1.7810540WSep 6 · 21:25L. Vich2.3858111182T. Rein1.53111175113LSep 6 · 20:25T. Rein1.40119121192Z. Vyskocil2.75311143113WSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972WSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141WSep 5 · 07:55T. Rein4.00981111113T. Hnizdil1.2211119572LSep 5 · 06:55T. Rein1.9113661142B. Budik1.801111119113LSep 3 · 14:09T. Hnizdil1.251111113T. Rein3.753990LSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272
P. Kubat10
WAug 27 · 17:25P. Kubat1.9114711143P. Vodal1.8012119121WAug 27 · 16:50P. Kubat2.1011119113P. Vodal1.67741181LAug 27 · 15:20A. Jr2.7551111113P. Kubat1.40119661LAug 27 · 14:50T. Rein1.331111113P. Kubat3.253540LAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102LAug 25 · 21:25P. Kubat2.255990J. Cousin1.571111113LAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142LAug 25 · 19:25L. Jirka1.501111113P. Kubat2.502520WAug 14 · 13:30P. Kubat1.36119611113A. Jr3.0061111292LAug 14 · 12:50P. Kubat2.0011126562P. Vodal1.739101111113
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