TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12429675
Played Aug 14Finished
Petr Kubat
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191210611511611
Petr Vodal
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Vodal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Kubat above · Petr Vodal below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 92 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Petr Vodal at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Petr Kubat 4–1 Petr Vodal Petr Vodal has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:21What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vodal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Kubat
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubat 1426 vs Vodal 1519
Vodal
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubat 60% vs Vodal 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubat 50% vs Vodal 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubat -1 · Vodal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vodal)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubat 2.00 / Vodal 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vodal)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #12429675
Kubat2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 18 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Vodal1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite53% won 42 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it72% 31 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKubat4wins
AwayVodal1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderKubat leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubatn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayVodal25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubat1Vodal4n = 5Vodal took 4 of 5
S2Kubat2Vodal3n = 5Vodal took 3 of 5
S3Kubat3Vodal2n = 5Kubat took 3 of 5
S4Kubat4Vodal1n = 5Kubat took 4 of 5
S5Kubat3Vodal0n = 3Kubat took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKubatVodalK − VBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match44.041.2+2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubatVodalBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 257 vs 243 / 47437%51.3%95 / 257 vs 243 / 474Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VodalKubat 2.00/Vodal 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vodal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vodal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 12 · 17:55P. Kubat—13515113P. Vodal—11111381
LAug 12 · 15:50P. Kubat—9114101P. Vodal—11511123
WOct 18 · 10:20P. Kubat—811812103P. Vodal—116111082
WAug 7 · 06:20P. Kubat—1041111113P. Vodal—12118852
WAug 2 · 12:25P. Kubat—941111113P. Vodal—11114352
P. Kubat10
WAug 27 · 17:25P. Kubat1.9114711143P. Vodal1.8012119121WAug 27 · 16:50P. Kubat2.1011119113P. Vodal1.67741181LAug 27 · 15:20A. Jr2.7551111113P. Kubat1.40119661LAug 27 · 14:50T. Rein1.331111113P. Kubat3.253540LAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102LAug 25 · 21:25P. Kubat2.255990J. Cousin1.571111113LAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142LAug 25 · 19:25L. Jirka1.501111113P. Kubat2.502520WAug 14 · 13:30P. Kubat1.36119611113A. Jr3.0061111292LAug 14 · 11:20T. Rein1.3311118113P. Kubat3.25681151
P. Vodal10
LSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192WSep 6 · 08:50B. Budik1.5361181192P. Vodal2.38117119113WSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962LSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972LSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141LSep 5 · 08:25B. Budik1.671111113P. Vodal2.105690LSep 5 · 07:25P. Vodal3.4011680T. Hnizdil1.301311113LAug 27 · 17:25P. Kubat1.9114711143P. Vodal1.8012119121LAug 27 · 16:50P. Kubat2.1011119113P. Vodal1.67741181
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