TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13149344
Played Sep 18Finished
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611115611110311
Lukas Dominik Rek
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:58 and never touched — 71.3% is still 71.3%
Graded at full timeLukas Dominik Rek to win
71.3%
71.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Lukas Dominik Rek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-0
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 75 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Lukas Dominik Rek at 71.3%
75 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 1–6 Lukas Dominik Rek Tomas Cerveny Jr has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Rek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Rek
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1506 vs Rek 1518
Rek
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Rek 60%
Rek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 60% vs Rek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Rek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Rek) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 3.00 / Rek 1.36
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Rek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13149344
Jr3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 35 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Rek1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 64 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it74% 46 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeJr1wins
AwayRek6wins
1 of 7 to a deciderRek leads 6–1, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr2Rek5n = 7Rek took 5 of 7
S2Jr2Rek5n = 7Rek took 5 of 7
S3Jr3Rek4n = 7Rek took 4 of 7
S4Jr0Rek3n = 3Rek took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricJrRekJ − RBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match29.436.9−7.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrRekBasisWin rate · lifetime333 / 607 vs 147 / 24854.9%59.3%333 / 607 vs 147 / 248Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekJr 3.00/Rek 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.2%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LMay 15 · 21:25T. Jr2485110L. Rek351111133
LMay 1 · 18:00T. Jr30116761L. Rek3631111113
LMay 1 · 15:20T. Jr2371060L. Rek341112113
LApr 21 · 18:05T. Jr4171111572L. Rek48116911113
LApr 21 · 15:50T. Jr217950L. Rek331111113
WDec 28 · 22:55T. Jr371412113L. Rek30121080
LDec 28 · 22:25T. Jr30681151L. Rek4211119113
T. Jr10
WSep 18 · 13:25T. Jr1.8013117113P. Kubat1.911191141WSep 18 · 11:20P. Kubat1.61681361T. Jr2.20111111113LSep 18 · 10:50A. Jr1.73121511113T. Jr2.001017671WSep 15 · 17:20A. Jr1.801378101T. Jr1.91111111123LSep 15 · 16:20T. Jr2.00119111122D. Zelezny1.73611913113LSep 15 · 15:20T. Jr2.00101112962A. Jr1.731291011113WSep 15 · 14:20T. Jr1.50117911113T. Rein2.5061111692WSep 10 · 22:35M. Juhasz1.80381121T. Jr1.9011119113LSep 10 · 20:55T. Jr2.0071211101M. Juhasz1.7311144123WSep 10 · 19:55T. Jr1.8311115113Z. Vyskocil1.83851141
L. Rek10
WSep 18 · 13:55L. Rek1.501211113A. Jr2.4510660WSep 18 · 11:50L. Rek1.5711114113A. Jr2.25681181WSep 18 · 10:20P. Kubat2.0041111462L. Rek1.73118611113LSep 13 · 14:25L. Rek2.255540J. Sebl1.551111113LSep 13 · 13:25D. Zelezny1.731114113L. Rek2.0071280WSep 13 · 12:25L. Rek2.50111189113J. Sebl1.5088111152WSep 13 · 10:55L. Jirka1.7388191152L. Rek2.001111173113WSep 12 · 14:30L. Rek1.85121199113C. Kratochvil1.85109111162LSep 12 · 12:55L. Rek1.73117761C. Kratochvil2.0091111113WSep 12 · 11:55L. Rek1.801111133P. Vodal1.9158110
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