TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13149357
Played Sep 18Finished
Ales Brandtl Jr
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101517116117––
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Tomas Cerveny Jr below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 15-17
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 89 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 26–24 Tomas Cerveny Jr Tomas Cerveny Jr has won 24 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:01What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-24 in 50
Jr
Correct
gap of 2 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1402 vs Jr 1527
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 20% vs Jr 60%
Jr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 20% vs Jr 60%
Jr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -2 · Jr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.73 / Jr 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jr)+7.7pp
TT Cup · #13149357
Jr1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 39 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it65% 26 of 40
Jr2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 35 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwayJr6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr50%3 of 6
AwayJr75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr6Jr4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Jr2Jr8n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S3Jr6Jr4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Jr3Jr7n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S5Jr3Jr2n = 5Jr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrJrJr − JrBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.443.3−2.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrJrBasisWin rate · lifetime249 / 537 vs 333 / 61146.4%54.5%249 / 537 vs 333 / 611Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.73/Jr 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 17:20A. Jr381378101T. Jr45111111123
WSep 15 · 15:20A. Jr531291011113T. Jr48101112962
LSep 9 · 13:30A. Jr30116581T. Jr3741111113
LSep 9 · 10:50A. Jr4913911972T. Jr481111411113
WAug 12 · 17:23A. Jr49125129113T. Jr491011101172
LAug 12 · 15:20A. Jr4171111572T. Jr45116611113
LJul 23 · 21:25A. Jr28861131T. Jr3711114113
LJul 23 · 18:20A. Jr26551151T. Jr4211119113
WJul 20 · 17:55A. Jr48117811113T. Jr3861111642
WJul 20 · 15:50A. Jr4231113153T. Jr4411911131
A. Jr10
LSep 18 · 11:50L. Rek1.5711114113A. Jr2.25681181LSep 15 · 17:20A. Jr1.801378101T. Jr1.91111111123LSep 15 · 16:50A. Jr1.835740T. Rein1.831111113WSep 15 · 15:20T. Jr2.00101112962A. Jr1.731291011113LSep 15 · 14:50D. Zelezny1.361111123A. Jr3.0097100LSep 9 · 13:30T. Jr2.0041111113A. Jr1.73116581WSep 9 · 12:50A. Jr3.751113511113T. Hnizdil1.25131111962LSep 9 · 11:20F. Dvorak1.731111113A. Jr2.008680LSep 9 · 10:50T. Jr2.001111411113A. Jr1.7313911972LSep 8 · 18:25A. Jr2.205101281V. Koutnik1.60111210113
T. Jr10
WSep 18 · 11:20P. Kubat1.61681361T. Jr2.20111111113WSep 15 · 17:20A. Jr1.801378101T. Jr1.91111111123LSep 15 · 16:20T. Jr2.00119111122D. Zelezny1.73611913113LSep 15 · 15:20T. Jr2.00101112962A. Jr1.731291011113WSep 15 · 14:20T. Jr1.50117911113T. Rein2.5061111692WSep 10 · 22:35M. Juhasz1.80381121T. Jr1.9011119113LSep 10 · 20:55T. Jr2.0071211101M. Juhasz1.7311144123WSep 10 · 19:55T. Jr1.8311115113Z. Vyskocil1.83851141WSep 9 · 13:30T. Jr2.0041111113A. Jr1.73116581WSep 9 · 10:50T. Jr2.001111411113A. Jr1.7313911972
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