TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13136048
Played Sep 15Finished
Ales Brandtl Jr
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
13117118111012––
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Tomas Cerveny Jr below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 83 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 26–23 Tomas Cerveny Jr Tomas Cerveny Jr has won 23 of their 49 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Jr beat Jr 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:17What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-23 in 49
Jr
Wrong
gap of 3 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1410 vs Jr 1519
Jr
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 30% vs Jr 50%
Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Jr -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.80 / Jr 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jr)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13136048
Jr1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 40 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it66% 25 of 38
Jr1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 34 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back19% 11 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr5wins
AwayJr5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr66.7%4 of 6
AwayJr75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr6Jr4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Jr3Jr7n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S3Jr7Jr3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S4Jr3Jr6n = 9Jr took 6 of 9
S5Jr3Jr2n = 5Jr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrJrJr − JrBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.040.5−0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrJrBasisWin rate · lifetime249 / 536 vs 332 / 61046.5%54.4%249 / 536 vs 332 / 610Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.80/Jr 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 15:20A. Jr531291011113T. Jr48101112962
LSep 9 · 13:30A. Jr30116581T. Jr3741111113
LSep 9 · 10:50A. Jr4913911972T. Jr481111411113
WAug 12 · 17:23A. Jr49125129113T. Jr491011101172
LAug 12 · 15:20A. Jr4171111572T. Jr45116611113
LJul 23 · 21:25A. Jr28861131T. Jr3711114113
LJul 23 · 18:20A. Jr26551151T. Jr4211119113
WJul 20 · 17:55A. Jr48117811113T. Jr3861111642
WJul 20 · 15:50A. Jr4231113153T. Jr4411911131
WJun 25 · 21:19A. Jr341111123T. Jr1743100
A. Jr10
LSep 15 · 16:50A. Jr1.835740T. Rein1.831111113WSep 15 · 15:20T. Jr2.00101112962A. Jr1.731291011113LSep 15 · 14:50D. Zelezny1.361111123A. Jr3.0097100LSep 9 · 13:30T. Jr2.0041111113A. Jr1.73116581WSep 9 · 12:50A. Jr3.751113511113T. Hnizdil1.25131111962LSep 9 · 11:20F. Dvorak1.731111113A. Jr2.008680LSep 9 · 10:50T. Jr2.001111411113A. Jr1.7313911972LSep 8 · 18:25A. Jr2.205101281V. Koutnik1.60111210113LSep 8 · 16:55J. Osmera1.53811116113A. Jr2.3811871172WSep 8 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.5311712101A. Jr2.3871114123
T. Jr10
LSep 15 · 16:20T. Jr2.00119111122D. Zelezny1.73611913113LSep 15 · 15:20T. Jr2.00101112962A. Jr1.731291011113WSep 15 · 14:20T. Jr1.50117911113T. Rein2.5061111692WSep 10 · 22:35M. Juhasz1.80381121T. Jr1.9011119113LSep 10 · 20:55T. Jr2.0071211101M. Juhasz1.7311144123WSep 10 · 19:55T. Jr1.8311115113Z. Vyskocil1.83851141WSep 10 · 18:55T. Jr2.10611211113T. Barsa1.6711711382WSep 9 · 13:30T. Jr2.0041111113A. Jr1.73116581LSep 9 · 12:20F. Dvorak1.4416119113T. Jr2.631461191WSep 9 · 10:50T. Jr2.001111411113A. Jr1.7313911972
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