TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13134385
Played Sep 15Finished
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121191210911611
Ales Brandtl Jr
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 101 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 23–25 Ales Brandtl Jr Tomas Cerveny Jr has won 23 of their 48 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 09:49What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-25 in 48
Jr
Correct
gap of 2 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1561 vs Jr 1393
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 80% vs Jr 20%
Jr
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 70% vs Jr 30%
Jr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +2 · Jr -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.00 / Jr 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jr)+7.7pp
TT Cup · #13134385
Jr2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 34 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back19% 11 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Jr1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 40 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it66% 25 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr5wins
AwayJr5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr75%3 of 4
AwayJr66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Jr6Jr4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Jr2Jr8n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S4Jr6Jr2n = 8Jr took 6 of 8
S5Jr2Jr2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrJrJr − JrBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.838.0−0.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrJrBasisWin rate · lifetime332 / 608 vs 248 / 53454.6%46.4%332 / 608 vs 248 / 534Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 2.00/Jr 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 13:30T. Jr3741111113A. Jr30116581
WSep 9 · 10:50T. Jr481111411113A. Jr4913911972
LAug 12 · 17:23T. Jr491011101172A. Jr49125129113
WAug 12 · 15:20T. Jr45116611113A. Jr4171111572
WJul 23 · 21:25T. Jr3711114113A. Jr28861131
WJul 23 · 18:20T. Jr4211119113A. Jr26551151
LJul 20 · 17:55T. Jr3861111642A. Jr48117811113
LJul 20 · 15:50T. Jr4411911131A. Jr4231113153
LJun 25 · 21:19T. Jr1743100A. Jr341111123
LJun 25 · 19:20T. Jr218490A. Jr331111113
T. Jr10
LSep 15 · 16:20T. Jr2.00119111122D. Zelezny1.73611913113WSep 15 · 14:20T. Jr1.50117911113T. Rein2.5061111692WSep 10 · 22:35M. Juhasz1.80381121T. Jr1.9011119113LSep 10 · 20:55T. Jr2.0071211101M. Juhasz1.7311144123WSep 10 · 19:55T. Jr1.8311115113Z. Vyskocil1.83851141WSep 10 · 18:55T. Jr2.10611211113T. Barsa1.6711711382WSep 9 · 13:30T. Jr2.0041111113A. Jr1.73116581LSep 9 · 12:20F. Dvorak1.4416119113T. Jr2.631461191LSep 9 · 11:50T. Hnizdil1.4011119123T. Jr2.755711101WSep 9 · 10:50T. Jr2.001111411113A. Jr1.7313911972
A. Jr10
LSep 15 · 14:50D. Zelezny1.361111123A. Jr3.0097100LSep 9 · 13:30T. Jr2.0041111113A. Jr1.73116581WSep 9 · 12:50A. Jr3.751113511113T. Hnizdil1.25131111962LSep 9 · 11:20F. Dvorak1.731111113A. Jr2.008680LSep 9 · 10:50T. Jr2.001111411113A. Jr1.7313911972LSep 8 · 18:25A. Jr2.205101281V. Koutnik1.60111210113LSep 8 · 16:55J. Osmera1.53811116113A. Jr2.3811871172WSep 8 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.5311712101A. Jr2.3871114123WSep 8 · 15:25A. Jr2.2011711113C. Kratochvil1.61911291LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113
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