TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13117678
Played Sep 12Finished
Lukas Dominik Rek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119711711611––
Christian Kratochvil
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Dominik Rek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Dominik Rek above · Christian Kratochvil below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-8
Point 69 set 4, 5-8 — our read held Lukas Dominik Rek at 54.0%
69 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Lukas Dominik Rek 2–2 Christian Kratochvil Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:43What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rek 1475 vs Kratochvil 1475
Kratochvil
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rek 80% vs Kratochvil 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rek 50% vs Kratochvil 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rek +3 · Kratochvil -1
Rek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kratochvil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRek 1.73 / Kratochvil 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13117678
Rek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 67 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it76% 47 of 62
Kratochvil2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 18 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back32% 6 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeRek2wins
AwayKratochvil2wins
3 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRek66.7%2 of 3
AwayKratochviln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rek3Kratochvil1n = 4Rek took 3 of 4
S2Rek0Kratochvil4n = 4Kratochvil took 4 of 4
S3Rek3Kratochvil1n = 4Rek took 3 of 4
S4Rek0Kratochvil3n = 3Kratochvil took 3 of 3
S5Rek2Kratochvil1n = 3Rek took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricRekKratochvilR − KBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match40.839.5+1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRekKratochvilBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 241 vs 238 / 42459.3%56.1%143 / 241 vs 238 / 424Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekRek 1.73/Kratochvil 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kratochvil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJun 9 · 14:50L. Rek49111111882C. Kratochvil47413811113
WMay 16 · 11:55L. Rek46118115113C. Kratochvil4041151192
LApr 26 · 09:55L. Rek237970C. Kratochvil331111113
WApr 26 · 08:50L. Rek45116116113C. Kratochvil3871131162
L. Rek10
WSep 12 · 11:55L. Rek1.801111133P. Vodal1.9158110WSep 12 · 10:55L. Rek1.801112113V. Koutnik1.9191080WSep 11 · 17:23L. Rek1.30116811113T. Rein3.4081111562LSep 11 · 16:20L. Rek1.408530D. Zelezny2.751111113WSep 11 · 15:20L. Rek1.331111113T. Rein3.259460LSep 11 · 14:20L. Rek2.257760J. Sebl1.571111113WSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101LSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113LSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772
C. Kratochvil10
LSep 12 · 12:25V. Koutnik1.401111511113C. Kratochvil2.7513811322WSep 12 · 11:25C. Kratochvil2.3811156113P. Vodal1.539131171WSep 12 · 10:04C. Kratochvil1.281111113T. Rein3.508940WSep 12 · 08:55T. Rein3.40691261C. Kratochvil1.30111110113WSep 12 · 08:25B. Budik1.50812111192C. Kratochvil2.35111444113LSep 12 · 07:25C. Kratochvil2.25610110P. Vodal1.571112133LSep 8 · 17:55J. Osmera1.7391111113C. Kratochvil2.00116781LSep 8 · 17:25C. Kratochvil1.7310840V. Koutnik2.001211113LSep 8 · 15:55J. Osmera1.73511411113C. Kratochvil2.0011911992LSep 8 · 15:25A. Jr2.2011711113C. Kratochvil1.61911291
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