TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114175
Played Sep 11Finished
Lukas Dominik Rek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711611––––
Jachym Sebl
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:34 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Dominik Rek above · Jachym Sebl below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 53 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Jachym Sebl at 62.9%
53 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dominik Rek 2–8 Jachym Sebl Lukas Dominik Rek has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:34What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Sebl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-8 in 10
Sebl
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rek 1414 vs Sebl 1650
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 236 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rek 20% vs Sebl 80%
Sebl
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rek 20% vs Sebl 80%
Sebl
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rek +1 · Sebl +3
Sebl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Sebl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRek 2.25 / Sebl 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Sebl)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13114175
Rek2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 11 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back17% 2 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Sebl1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 82 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it96% 54 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it76% 66 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRek2wins
AwaySebl8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSebl leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRek50%2 of 4
AwaySebl100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rek4Sebl6n = 10Sebl took 6 of 10
S2Rek3Sebl7n = 10Sebl took 7 of 10
S3Rek2Sebl8n = 10Sebl took 8 of 10
S4Rek4Sebl3n = 7Rek took 4 of 7
S5Rek1Sebl3n = 4Sebl took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRekSeblR − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.839.0−4.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRekSeblBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 235 vs 302 / 64159.2%47.1%139 / 235 vs 302 / 641Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.135.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SeblRek 2.25/Sebl 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 13:25L. Rek—1174101J. Sebl—91111123
LSep 5 · 14:02L. Rek—8890J. Sebl—1111113
LSep 5 · 11:55L. Rek—125861J. Sebl—101111113
LAug 31 · 10:35L. Rek—411111152J. Sebl—118135113
LAug 31 · 07:55L. Rek—7930J. Sebl—1111113
WAug 9 · 19:55L. Rek—11911113J. Sebl—511541
LJul 23 · 12:20L. Rek—41251192J. Sebl—1110117113
LJun 22 · 12:20L. Rek—7840J. Sebl—1111113
LJun 1 · 14:20L. Rek—71181192J. Sebl—117118113
WMay 9 · 18:55L. Rek—1111117113J. Sebl—11361132
L. Rek10
WSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101LSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113LSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890LSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 09:25L. Rek1.91116117113O. Knazik1.8051171192
J. Sebl10
WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551
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