TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13118413
Played Sep 12Finished
Vojtech Koutnik
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113118511113112
Christian Kratochvil
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:22 and never touched — 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Koutnik above · Christian Kratochvil below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 86 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 66.7%
86 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koutnik 3–2 Christian Kratochvil Christian Kratochvil has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:22What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Koutnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koutnik 1570 vs Kratochvil 1483
Koutnik
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koutnik 40% vs Kratochvil 80%
Kratochvil
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koutnik 70% vs Kratochvil 50%
Koutnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koutnik -1 · Kratochvil +4
Kratochvil
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Koutnik) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kratochvil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoutnik 1.40 / Kratochvil 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 33%
Edge (Koutnik)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13118413
Koutnik1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 38 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it68% 28 of 41
Kratochvil2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 18 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back32% 6 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKoutnik3wins
AwayKratochvil2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKoutnik leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoutnikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKratochvil66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koutnik2Kratochvil3n = 5Kratochvil took 3 of 5
S2Koutnik3Kratochvil2n = 5Koutnik took 3 of 5
S3Koutnik4Kratochvil1n = 5Koutnik took 4 of 5
S4Koutnik0Kratochvil4n = 4Kratochvil took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKoutnikKratochvilKoutnik − KratochvilBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match38.038.00.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoutnikKratochvilBasisWin rate · lifetime162 / 347 vs 238 / 42346.7%56.3%162 / 347 vs 238 / 423Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikKoutnik 1.40/Kratochvil 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 8 · 17:25V. Koutnik341211113C. Kratochvil2210840
WMay 31 · 11:25V. Koutnik45811114113C. Kratochvil4411781172
WMay 16 · 18:35V. Koutnik47115119113C. Kratochvil4481161182
LMay 16 · 14:55V. Koutnik28611651C. Kratochvil4011711113
LMay 10 · 17:25V. Koutnik36791191C. Kratochvil4011117113
V. Koutnik10
WSep 12 · 13:25P. Vodal2.1012770V. Koutnik1.671411113LSep 12 · 10:55L. Rek1.801112113V. Koutnik1.9191080WSep 11 · 10:00B. Budik1.9581171282V. Koutnik1.751191110113WSep 11 · 08:55V. Koutnik2.501013611123T. Hnizdil1.501211114102LSep 11 · 07:55V. Koutnik1.7181171192B. Budik2.00118119113LSep 11 · 06:55V. Koutnik1.5761111872P. Vodal2.25116611113WSep 10 · 10:35V. Koutnik1.671111113F. Dvorak2.108870WSep 10 · 09:25T. Rein2.2061161152V. Koutnik1.61119115113WSep 10 · 08:25V. Koutnik2.101111113J. Osmera1.676950WSep 8 · 18:25A. Jr2.205101281V. Koutnik1.60111210113
C. Kratochvil10
WSep 12 · 12:55L. Rek1.73117761C. Kratochvil2.0091111113WSep 12 · 11:25C. Kratochvil2.3811156113P. Vodal1.539131171WSep 12 · 10:04C. Kratochvil1.281111113T. Rein3.508940WSep 12 · 08:55T. Rein3.40691261C. Kratochvil1.30111110113WSep 12 · 08:25B. Budik1.50812111192C. Kratochvil2.35111444113LSep 12 · 07:25C. Kratochvil2.25610110P. Vodal1.571112133LSep 8 · 17:55J. Osmera1.7391111113C. Kratochvil2.00116781LSep 8 · 17:25C. Kratochvil1.7310840V. Koutnik2.001211113LSep 8 · 15:55J. Osmera1.73511411113C. Kratochvil2.0011911992LSep 8 · 15:25A. Jr2.2011711113C. Kratochvil1.61911291
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