TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13111605
Played Sep 11Finished
Vojtech Koutnik
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611116116811711
Petr Vodal
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:35 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVojtech Koutnik above · Petr Vodal below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 88 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 60.5%
88 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koutnik 17–16 Petr Vodal Petr Vodal has won 16 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:35What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Koutnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-16 in 33
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koutnik 1570 vs Vodal 1383
Koutnik
Wrong
both rated, 187 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koutnik 100% vs Vodal 40%
Koutnik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koutnik 80% vs Vodal 30%
Koutnik
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koutnik +5 · Vodal -1
Koutnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Koutnik) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoutnik 1.57 / Vodal 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Koutnik)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13111605
Koutnik1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite62% won 37 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it68% 27 of 40
Vodal2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 52 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back33% 18 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoutnik6wins
AwayVodal4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoutnik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoutnik100%4 of 4
AwayVodal66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koutnik4Vodal6n = 10Vodal took 6 of 10
S2Koutnik7Vodal3n = 10Koutnik took 7 of 10
S3Koutnik7Vodal3n = 10Koutnik took 7 of 10
S4Koutnik4Vodal5n = 9Vodal took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoutnikVodalK − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.036.1+2.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoutnikVodalBasisWin rate · lifetime160 / 343 vs 247 / 48346.7%51.1%160 / 343 vs 247 / 483Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikKoutnik 1.57/Vodal 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vodal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 06:55V. Koutnik—61111872P. Vodal—116611113
LAug 23 · 11:55V. Koutnik—7101181P. Vodal—11128113
WAug 16 · 14:04V. Koutnik—11811113P. Vodal—911881
WAug 16 · 11:55V. Koutnik—11116113P. Vodal—891151
LAug 1 · 13:54V. Koutnik—911581P. Vodal—11611113
WAug 1 · 12:55V. Koutnik—1111113P. Vodal—6270
WJul 19 · 08:25V. Koutnik—1111118113P. Vodal—13681172
WJul 17 · 16:25V. Koutnik—31111113P. Vodal—113981
LJun 28 · 10:55V. Koutnik—981171P. Vodal—11119113
WJun 26 · 17:25V. Koutnik—11119113P. Vodal—861181
V. Koutnik10
LSep 11 · 07:55V. Koutnik1.7181171192B. Budik2.00118119113WSep 10 · 10:35V. Koutnik1.671111113F. Dvorak2.108870WSep 10 · 09:25T. Rein2.2061161152V. Koutnik1.61119115113WSep 10 · 08:25V. Koutnik2.101111113J. Osmera1.676950WSep 8 · 18:25A. Jr2.205101281V. Koutnik1.60111210113WSep 8 · 17:25C. Kratochvil1.7310840V. Koutnik2.001211113LSep 8 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.5311712101A. Jr2.3871114123WSep 8 · 14:55J. Osmera1.619114131V. Koutnik2.2011911153LSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113WSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272
P. Vodal10
LSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192WSep 6 · 08:50B. Budik1.5361181192P. Vodal2.38117119113WSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962LSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972LSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141LSep 5 · 08:25B. Budik1.671111113P. Vodal2.105690LSep 5 · 07:25P. Vodal3.4011680T. Hnizdil1.301311113LAug 30 · 13:30P. Vodal1.73107111172J. Dohnal2.00121197113WAug 30 · 12:50P. Vodal2.001011116123J. Dohnal1.73126311102
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