TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13107198
Played Sep 10Finished
Vojtech Koutnik
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119115––––
Jan Osmera
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:05 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeJan Osmera to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVojtech Koutnik above · Jan Osmera below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 53 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Jan Osmera at 56.6%
53 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koutnik 11–11 Jan Osmera Dead even across their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 01:05What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Osmera
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-11 in 22
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koutnik 1562 vs Osmera 1576
Osmera
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koutnik 60% vs Osmera 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koutnik 70% vs Osmera 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koutnik +2 · Osmera -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Osmera)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoutnik 2.10 / Osmera 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Osmera)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13107198
Koutnik2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog49% won 50 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back37% 20 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Osmera1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 72 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it75% 46 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoutnik5wins
AwayOsmera5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoutnik60%3 of 5
AwayOsmera60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koutnik5Osmera5n = 10split evenly
S2Koutnik4Osmera6n = 10Osmera took 6 of 10
S3Koutnik8Osmera2n = 10Koutnik took 8 of 10
S4Koutnik5Osmera3n = 8Koutnik took 5 of 8
S5Koutnik0Osmera3n = 3Osmera took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoutnikOsmeraK − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.438.9+0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoutnikOsmeraBasisWin rate · lifetime157 / 339 vs 266 / 47946.3%55.5%157 / 339 vs 266 / 479Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsmeraKoutnik 2.10/Osmera 1.67
Miss
What we said
56.6%
Osmera · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 14:55V. Koutnik—11911153J. Osmera—9114131
WJul 19 · 10:24V. Koutnik—91211113J. Osmera—1110881
WJul 19 · 09:25V. Koutnik—1111113J. Osmera—8480
LJun 28 · 12:25V. Koutnik—961141J. Osmera—11117113
LJun 20 · 10:34V. Koutnik—11512892J. Osmera—8111011113
WJun 20 · 07:55V. Koutnik—121211113J. Osmera—1410691
LMay 10 · 18:30V. Koutnik—11511582J. Osmera—911811113
LMay 10 · 16:25V. Koutnik—7880J. Osmera—1111113
WMar 20 · 15:40V. Koutnik—11119113J. Osmera—891181
LMar 20 · 12:25V. Koutnik—117111162J. Osmera—131183113
V. Koutnik10
WSep 8 · 18:25A. Jr2.205101281V. Koutnik1.60111210113WSep 8 · 17:25C. Kratochvil1.7310840V. Koutnik2.001211113LSep 8 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.5311712101A. Jr2.3871114123WSep 8 · 14:55J. Osmera1.619114131V. Koutnik2.2011911153LSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113WSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272WSep 3 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.751211113T. Hnizdil1.4010460LSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113WAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 13:25A. Jr2.50119661V. Koutnik1.5091111113
J. Osmera10
LSep 10 · 07:25J. Osmera1.33126991T. Rein3.25101111113WSep 8 · 17:55J. Osmera1.7391111113C. Kratochvil2.00116781WSep 8 · 16:55J. Osmera1.53811116113A. Jr2.3811871172WSep 8 · 15:55J. Osmera1.73511411113C. Kratochvil2.0011911992LSep 8 · 14:55J. Osmera1.619114131V. Koutnik2.2011911153LAug 20 · 10:38M. Filipek1.8381114113J. Osmera1.831191291WAug 20 · 08:55J. Osmera1.73871111143P. Vodal2.00111198122WAug 20 · 07:55J. Osmera1.66911611113B. Budik2.1011811892WAug 18 · 14:00J. Sebl2.14612911J. Osmera1.58111011113WAug 18 · 12:50O. Knazik1.73812881J. Osmera2.00111011113
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