TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13118167
Played Sep 12Finished
Petr Vodal
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214711711––––
Vojtech Koutnik
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:02 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Vodal above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 62 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 58.6%
62 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vodal 16–17 Vojtech Koutnik Petr Vodal has won 16 of their 33 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 01:02What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Koutnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-17 in 33
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vodal 1381 vs Koutnik 1578
Koutnik
Correct
both rated, 197 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vodal 20% vs Koutnik 60%
Koutnik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vodal 40% vs Koutnik 70%
Koutnik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vodal -4 · Koutnik +1
Vodal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Koutnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vodal form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVodal 2.10 / Koutnik 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Koutnik)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13118167
Vodal2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 54 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back33% 19 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Koutnik1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 38 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it68% 28 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVodal4wins
AwayKoutnik6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoutnik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVodal66.7%4 of 6
AwayKoutnik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vodal6Koutnik4n = 10Vodal took 6 of 10
S2Vodal3Koutnik7n = 10Koutnik took 7 of 10
S3Vodal3Koutnik7n = 10Koutnik took 7 of 10
S4Vodal5Koutnik4n = 9Vodal took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVodalKoutnikV − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.139.0−2.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVodalKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 490 vs 163 / 34851%46.8%250 / 490 vs 163 / 348Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikVodal 2.10/Koutnik 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.6%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 06:55P. Vodal45116611113V. Koutnik4361111872
WAug 23 · 11:55P. Vodal4211128113V. Koutnik367101181
LAug 16 · 14:04P. Vodal36911881V. Koutnik4111811113
LAug 16 · 11:55P. Vodal33891151V. Koutnik3911116113
WAug 1 · 13:54P. Vodal3911611113V. Koutnik33911581
LAug 1 · 12:55P. Vodal156270V. Koutnik331111113
LJul 19 · 08:25P. Vodal4513681172V. Koutnik521111118113
LJul 17 · 16:25P. Vodal31113981V. Koutnik3631111113
WJun 28 · 10:55P. Vodal4211119113V. Koutnik35981171
LJun 26 · 17:25P. Vodal33861181V. Koutnik4211119113
P. Vodal10
LSep 12 · 14:02V. Koutnik1.5071312113P. Vodal2.4011111081LSep 12 · 11:55L. Rek1.801111133P. Vodal1.9158110LSep 12 · 11:25C. Kratochvil2.3811156113P. Vodal1.539131171LSep 12 · 10:35P. Vodal2.455890B. Budik1.501111113LSep 12 · 09:25P. Vodal2.101284101B. Budik1.60101111123WSep 12 · 07:55T. Rein2.1071260P. Vodal1.671114113WSep 12 · 07:25C. Kratochvil2.25610110P. Vodal1.571112133LSep 11 · 10:30T. Hnizdil1.251211113P. Vodal3.7510870WSep 11 · 09:25B. Budik1.711178101P. Vodal2.0041111123LSep 11 · 08:25P. Vodal3.405711111T. Hnizdil1.3011117133
V. Koutnik10
WSep 12 · 14:02V. Koutnik1.5071312113P. Vodal2.4011111081WSep 12 · 12:25V. Koutnik1.401111511113C. Kratochvil2.7513811322LSep 12 · 10:55L. Rek1.801112113V. Koutnik1.9191080WSep 11 · 10:00B. Budik1.9581171282V. Koutnik1.751191110113WSep 11 · 08:55V. Koutnik2.501013611123T. Hnizdil1.501211114102LSep 11 · 07:55V. Koutnik1.7181171192B. Budik2.00118119113LSep 11 · 06:55V. Koutnik1.5761111872P. Vodal2.25116611113WSep 10 · 10:35V. Koutnik1.671111113F. Dvorak2.108870WSep 10 · 09:25T. Rein2.2061161152V. Koutnik1.61119115113WSep 10 · 08:25V. Koutnik2.101111113J. Osmera1.676950
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