TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114336
Played Sep 11Finished
Tomas Hnizdil
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210118117––––
Petr Vodal
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:25 and never touched — 77.4% is still 77.4%
Graded at full timeTomas Hnizdil to win
77.4%
77.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Hnizdil above · Petr Vodal below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 59 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Tomas Hnizdil at 77.4%
59 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hnizdil 19–6 Petr Vodal Petr Vodal has won 6 of their 25 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Hnizdil beat Vodal 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:25What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Hnizdil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-6 in 25
Hnizdil
Correct
gap of 13 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hnizdil 1594 vs Vodal 1397
Hnizdil
Correct
both rated, 197 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hnizdil 60% vs Vodal 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hnizdil 70% vs Vodal 40%
Hnizdil
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hnizdil -1 · Vodal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Hnizdil) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vodal form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHnizdil 1.25 / Vodal 3.75
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Hnizdil)+6.3pp
TT Cup · #13114336
Hnizdil1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 47 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it85% 34 of 40
Vodal3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 52 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back33% 18 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHnizdil8wins
AwayVodal2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHnizdil leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHnizdil100%8 of 8
AwayVodaln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hnizdil8Vodal2n = 10Hnizdil took 8 of 10
S2Hnizdil7Vodal3n = 10Hnizdil took 7 of 10
S3Hnizdil6Vodal4n = 10Hnizdil took 6 of 10
S4Hnizdil4Vodal1n = 5Hnizdil took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHnizdilVodalH − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.328.6+9.7per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHnizdilVodalBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 247 vs 248 / 48359.5%51.4%147 / 247 vs 248 / 483Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HnizdilHnizdil 1.25/Vodal 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.3%
Hnizdil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hnizdil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 08:25T. Hnizdil—11117133P. Vodal—5711111
LSep 6 · 07:50T. Hnizdil—81171192P. Vodal—116118113
WSep 5 · 07:25T. Hnizdil—1311113P. Vodal—11680
WJul 22 · 07:55T. Hnizdil—1411113P. Vodal—12430
LJun 29 · 07:55T. Hnizdil—8970P. Vodal—1111113
WFeb 28 · 13:55T. Hnizdil—1311113P. Vodal—11760
WJan 27 · 12:20T. Hnizdil—11119113P. Vodal—461161
WAug 17 · 08:40T. Hnizdil—111111113P. Vodal—613281
WAug 16 · 12:20T. Hnizdil—116118103P. Vodal—21131142
WAug 7 · 08:20T. Hnizdil—1111113P. Vodal—6650
T. Hnizdil10
LSep 11 · 08:55V. Koutnik2.501013611123T. Hnizdil1.501211114102WSep 11 · 08:25P. Vodal3.405711111T. Hnizdil1.3011117133WSep 11 · 07:25T. Hnizdil1.6581111123B. Budik2.101178101WSep 9 · 14:00T. Hnizdil1.2791111113F. Dvorak3.30118861LSep 9 · 12:50A. Jr3.751113511113T. Hnizdil1.25131111962WSep 9 · 11:50T. Hnizdil1.4011119123T. Jr2.755711101WSep 9 · 10:20F. Dvorak3.2517170T. Hnizdil1.331911113LSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143WSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113
P. Vodal10
WSep 11 · 09:25B. Budik1.711178101P. Vodal2.0041111123LSep 11 · 08:25P. Vodal3.405711111T. Hnizdil1.3011117133WSep 11 · 06:55V. Koutnik1.5761111872P. Vodal2.25116611113LSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192WSep 6 · 08:50B. Budik1.5361181192P. Vodal2.38117119113WSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962LSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972LSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141LSep 5 · 08:25B. Budik1.671111113P. Vodal2.105690
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