TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13111189
Played Sep 11Finished
Petr Vodal
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5117111171113––
Tomas Hnizdil
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:36 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Hnizdil to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Vodal above · Tomas Hnizdil below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 76 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Tomas Hnizdil at 65.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vodal 6–18 Tomas Hnizdil Petr Vodal has won 6 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:36What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Hnizdil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-18 in 24
Hnizdil
Correct
gap of 12 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vodal 1383 vs Hnizdil 1614
Hnizdil
Correct
both rated, 230 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vodal 60% vs Hnizdil 80%
Hnizdil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vodal 30% vs Hnizdil 70%
Hnizdil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vodal +1 · Hnizdil +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Hnizdil) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vodal form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVodal 3.40 / Hnizdil 1.30
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Hnizdil)+6.3pp
TT Cup · #13111189
Vodal3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 52 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back33% 18 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 27
Hnizdil1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 47 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it85% 34 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVodal2wins
AwayHnizdil8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHnizdil leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVodaln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHnizdil100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vodal2Hnizdil8n = 10Hnizdil took 8 of 10
S2Vodal3Hnizdil7n = 10Hnizdil took 7 of 10
S3Vodal3Hnizdil7n = 10Hnizdil took 7 of 10
S4Vodal1Hnizdil3n = 4Hnizdil took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricVodalHnizdilV − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match27.037.4−10.4per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVodalHnizdilBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 483 vs 147 / 24651.1%59.8%247 / 483 vs 147 / 246Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HnizdilVodal 3.40/Hnizdil 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.6%
Hnizdil · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hnizdil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal—116118113T. Hnizdil—81171192
LSep 5 · 07:25P. Vodal—11680T. Hnizdil—1311113
LJul 22 · 07:55P. Vodal—12430T. Hnizdil—1411113
WJun 29 · 07:55P. Vodal—1111113T. Hnizdil—8970
LFeb 28 · 13:55P. Vodal—11760T. Hnizdil—1311113
LJan 27 · 12:20P. Vodal—461161T. Hnizdil—11119113
LAug 17 · 08:40P. Vodal—613281T. Hnizdil—111111113
LAug 16 · 12:20P. Vodal—21131142T. Hnizdil—116118103
LAug 7 · 08:20P. Vodal—6650T. Hnizdil—1111113
LJul 31 · 09:40P. Vodal—6840T. Hnizdil—1111113
P. Vodal10
WSep 11 · 06:55V. Koutnik1.5761111872P. Vodal2.25116611113LSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192WSep 6 · 08:50B. Budik1.5361181192P. Vodal2.38117119113WSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962LSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972LSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141LSep 5 · 08:25B. Budik1.671111113P. Vodal2.105690LSep 5 · 07:25P. Vodal3.4011680T. Hnizdil1.301311113LAug 30 · 13:30P. Vodal1.73107111172J. Dohnal2.00121197113
T. Hnizdil10
WSep 11 · 07:25T. Hnizdil1.6581111123B. Budik2.101178101WSep 9 · 14:00T. Hnizdil1.2791111113F. Dvorak3.30118861LSep 9 · 12:50A. Jr3.751113511113T. Hnizdil1.25131111962WSep 9 · 11:50T. Hnizdil1.4011119123T. Jr2.755711101WSep 9 · 10:20F. Dvorak3.2517170T. Hnizdil1.331911113LSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143WSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113LSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192WSep 5 · 07:25P. Vodal3.4011680T. Hnizdil1.301311113
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