TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13104282
Played Sep 9Finished
Tomas Hnizdil
Home
1.27
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911118118116––
Frantisek Dvorak
Away
3.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched — 74.6% is still 74.6%
Graded at full timeTomas Hnizdil to win
74.6%
74.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Hnizdil above · Frantisek Dvorak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 75 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Tomas Hnizdil at 74.6%
75 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hnizdil 5–1 Frantisek Dvorak Frantisek Dvorak has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Hnizdil beat Dvorak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:29What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (72%)
Hnizdil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Hnizdil
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hnizdil 1602 vs Dvorak 1524
Hnizdil
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hnizdil 60% vs Dvorak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hnizdil 60% vs Dvorak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hnizdil -1 · Dvorak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Hnizdil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (30%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHnizdil 1.27 / Dvorak 3.30
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Hnizdil)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13104282
Hnizdil1.27
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 44 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it87% 32 of 37
Dvorak3.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 16 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeHnizdil5wins
AwayDvorak1wins
1 of 6 to a deciderHnizdil leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHnizdil80%4 of 5
AwayDvorakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hnizdil5Dvorak1n = 6Hnizdil took 5 of 6
S2Hnizdil6Dvorak0n = 6Hnizdil took 6 of 6
S3Hnizdil5Dvorak1n = 6Hnizdil took 5 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home467%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricHnizdilDvorakH − DBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match38.530.0+8.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHnizdilDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 247 vs 167 / 30759.5%54.4%147 / 247 vs 167 / 307Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HnizdilHnizdil 1.27/Dvorak 3.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.6%
Hnizdil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hnizdil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 9 · 14:00T. Hnizdil—91111113F. Dvorak—118861
WSep 9 · 10:20T. Hnizdil—1911113F. Dvorak—17170
WJan 29 · 11:35T. Hnizdil—1311113F. Dvorak—11490
WJan 29 · 09:25T. Hnizdil—1111113F. Dvorak—9560
LOct 27 · 08:20T. Hnizdil—1111111142F. Dvorak—991313113
WAug 23 · 07:50T. Hnizdil—1111103F. Dvorak—8960
T. Hnizdil10
LSep 9 · 12:50A. Jr3.751113511113T. Hnizdil1.25131111962WSep 9 · 11:50T. Hnizdil1.4011119123T. Jr2.755711101WSep 9 · 10:20F. Dvorak3.2517170T. Hnizdil1.331911113LSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143WSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113WSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112LSep 6 · 09:35B. Budik1.441111113T. Hnizdil2.608890WSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113LSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192
F. Dvorak10
LSep 10 · 10:35V. Koutnik1.671111113F. Dvorak2.108870WSep 10 · 08:55F. Dvorak2.10117911113J. Osmera1.6781111652WSep 10 · 07:55F. Dvorak1.331111113T. Rein3.257780WSep 9 · 12:20F. Dvorak1.4416119113T. Jr2.631461191WSep 9 · 11:20F. Dvorak1.731111113A. Jr2.008680LSep 9 · 10:20F. Dvorak3.2517170T. Hnizdil1.331911113LAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 12:55T. Rein3.005920F. Dvorak1.361111113WAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113LAug 26 · 11:25F. Dvorak1.5751191182A. Jr2.25118112113
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