TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13120421
Played Sep 12Finished
Vojtech Koutnik
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
71113111210118––
Petr Vodal
Away
2.40
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
How it is goingVojtech Koutnik above · Petr Vodal below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 83 set 4, 11-8
83 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koutnik 18–16 Petr Vodal Petr Vodal has won 16 of their 34 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Koutnik beat Vodal 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Koutnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vodal form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoutnik 1.50 / Vodal 2.40
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Koutnik)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13120421
Koutnik1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 38 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it68% 28 of 41
Vodal2.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 54 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back33% 19 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoutnik6wins
AwayVodal4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoutnik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoutnik100%4 of 4
AwayVodal66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koutnik4Vodal6n = 10Vodal took 6 of 10
S2Koutnik7Vodal3n = 10Koutnik took 7 of 10
S3Koutnik8Vodal2n = 10Koutnik took 8 of 10
S4Koutnik3Vodal5n = 8Vodal took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoutnikVodalK − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.435.4+3.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoutnikVodalBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 349 vs 250 / 49147%50.9%164 / 349 vs 250 / 491Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikKoutnik 1.50/Vodal 2.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.3%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 13:25V. Koutnik361411113P. Vodal2612770
LSep 11 · 06:55V. Koutnik4361111872P. Vodal45116611113
LAug 23 · 11:55V. Koutnik367101181P. Vodal4211128113
WAug 16 · 14:04V. Koutnik4111811113P. Vodal36911881
WAug 16 · 11:55V. Koutnik3911116113P. Vodal33891151
LAug 1 · 13:54V. Koutnik33911581P. Vodal3911611113
WAug 1 · 12:55V. Koutnik331111113P. Vodal156270
WJul 19 · 08:25V. Koutnik521111118113P. Vodal4513681172
WJul 17 · 16:25V. Koutnik3631111113P. Vodal31113981
LJun 28 · 10:55V. Koutnik35981171P. Vodal4211119113
V. Koutnik10
WSep 12 · 13:25P. Vodal2.1012770V. Koutnik1.671411113WSep 12 · 12:25V. Koutnik1.401111511113C. Kratochvil2.7513811322LSep 12 · 10:55L. Rek1.801112113V. Koutnik1.9191080WSep 11 · 10:00B. Budik1.9581171282V. Koutnik1.751191110113WSep 11 · 08:55V. Koutnik2.501013611123T. Hnizdil1.501211114102LSep 11 · 07:55V. Koutnik1.7181171192B. Budik2.00118119113LSep 11 · 06:55V. Koutnik1.5761111872P. Vodal2.25116611113WSep 10 · 10:35V. Koutnik1.671111113F. Dvorak2.108870WSep 10 · 09:25T. Rein2.2061161152V. Koutnik1.61119115113WSep 10 · 08:25V. Koutnik2.101111113J. Osmera1.676950
P. Vodal10
LSep 12 · 13:25P. Vodal2.1012770V. Koutnik1.671411113LSep 12 · 11:55L. Rek1.801111133P. Vodal1.9158110LSep 12 · 11:25C. Kratochvil2.3811156113P. Vodal1.539131171LSep 12 · 10:35P. Vodal2.455890B. Budik1.501111113LSep 12 · 09:25P. Vodal2.101284101B. Budik1.60101111123WSep 12 · 07:55T. Rein2.1071260P. Vodal1.671114113WSep 12 · 07:25C. Kratochvil2.25610110P. Vodal1.571112133LSep 11 · 10:30T. Hnizdil1.251211113P. Vodal3.7510870WSep 11 · 09:25B. Budik1.711178101P. Vodal2.0041111123WSep 11 · 06:55V. Koutnik1.5761111872P. Vodal2.25116611113
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