TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13118429
Played Sep 12Finished
Christian Kratochvil
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191513611117––
Petr Vodal
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:33 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timePetr Vodal to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingChristian Kratochvil above · Petr Vodal below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 83 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Petr Vodal at 58.9%
83 points played in total.
H2H Christian Kratochvil 13–12 Petr Vodal Petr Vodal has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Vodal beat Kratochvil 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:33What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vodal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-12 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kratochvil 1493 vs Vodal 1402
Kratochvil
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kratochvil 60% vs Vodal 40%
Kratochvil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kratochvil 50% vs Vodal 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kratochvil +3 · Vodal -2
Kratochvil
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Vodal) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vodal form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKratochvil 2.38 / Vodal 1.53
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Vodal)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13118429
Kratochvil2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 18 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back32% 6 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Vodal1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 50 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it76% 35 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKratochvil3wins
AwayVodal7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVodal leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKratochvil75%3 of 4
AwayVodal100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kratochvil4Vodal6n = 10Vodal took 6 of 10
S2Kratochvil2Vodal8n = 10Vodal took 8 of 10
S3Kratochvil2Vodal8n = 10Vodal took 8 of 10
S4Kratochvil2Vodal2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricKratochvilVodalK − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match28.235.1−6.9per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKratochvilVodalBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 422 vs 250 / 48856.2%51.2%237 / 422 vs 250 / 488Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VodalKratochvil 2.38/Vodal 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58%
Vodal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kratochvil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 07:25C. Kratochvil—610110P. Vodal—1112133
LJul 18 · 07:25C. Kratochvil—9230P. Vodal—1111113
LJun 21 · 14:50C. Kratochvil—7230P. Vodal—1111113
LJun 9 · 17:55C. Kratochvil—5970P. Vodal—1111113
LJun 9 · 15:50C. Kratochvil—611871P. Vodal—11811113
LMay 31 · 12:25C. Kratochvil—118811P. Vodal—41111113
WMay 23 · 16:55C. Kratochvil—11611123P. Vodal—3117101
WMay 10 · 18:00C. Kratochvil—118811133P. Vodal—711119112
LMay 10 · 15:55C. Kratochvil—101040P. Vodal—1212113
WApr 19 · 16:20C. Kratochvil—1111113P. Vodal—9860
C. Kratochvil10
WSep 12 · 10:04C. Kratochvil1.281111113T. Rein3.508940WSep 12 · 08:55T. Rein3.40691261C. Kratochvil1.30111110113WSep 12 · 08:25B. Budik1.50812111192C. Kratochvil2.35111444113LSep 12 · 07:25C. Kratochvil2.25610110P. Vodal1.571112133LSep 8 · 17:55J. Osmera1.7391111113C. Kratochvil2.00116781LSep 8 · 17:25C. Kratochvil1.7310840V. Koutnik2.001211113LSep 8 · 15:55J. Osmera1.73511411113C. Kratochvil2.0011911992LSep 8 · 15:25A. Jr2.2011711113C. Kratochvil1.61911291WAug 31 · 22:25C. Kratochvil1.9012811123M. Juhasz1.8010119101WAug 31 · 21:25C. Kratochvil1.571111113Z. Vyskocil2.259950
P. Vodal10
LSep 12 · 10:35P. Vodal2.455890B. Budik1.501111113LSep 12 · 09:25P. Vodal2.101284101B. Budik1.60101111123WSep 12 · 07:55T. Rein2.1071260P. Vodal1.671114113WSep 12 · 07:25C. Kratochvil2.25610110P. Vodal1.571112133LSep 11 · 10:30T. Hnizdil1.251211113P. Vodal3.7510870WSep 11 · 09:25B. Budik1.711178101P. Vodal2.0041111123LSep 11 · 08:25P. Vodal3.405711111T. Hnizdil1.3011117133WSep 11 · 06:55V. Koutnik1.5761111872P. Vodal2.25116611113LSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192WSep 6 · 08:50B. Budik1.5361181192P. Vodal2.38117119113
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