TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13117689
Played Sep 12Finished
Christian Kratochvil
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
61110121113––––
Petr Vodal
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:44 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timePetr Vodal to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingChristian Kratochvil above · Petr Vodal below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 63 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Petr Vodal at 58.9%
63 points played in total.
H2H Christian Kratochvil 13–11 Petr Vodal Petr Vodal has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:44What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vodal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-11 in 24
Kratochvil
Wrong
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kratochvil 1463 vs Vodal 1383
Kratochvil
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kratochvil 20% vs Vodal 40%
Vodal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kratochvil 40% vs Vodal 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kratochvil -4 · Vodal -1
Kratochvil
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Vodal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vodal form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKratochvil 2.25 / Vodal 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Vodal)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13117689
Kratochvil2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 18 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back32% 6 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Vodal1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 50 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it76% 35 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKratochvil4wins
AwayVodal6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVodal leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKratochvil80%4 of 5
AwayVodal100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kratochvil5Vodal5n = 10split evenly
S2Kratochvil2Vodal8n = 10Vodal took 8 of 10
S3Kratochvil3Vodal7n = 10Vodal took 7 of 10
S4Kratochvil3Vodal2n = 5Kratochvil took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKratochvilVodalK − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match29.634.7−5.1per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKratochvilVodalBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 422 vs 248 / 48456.2%51.2%237 / 422 vs 248 / 484Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VodalKratochvil 2.25/Vodal 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Vodal · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vodal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 18 · 07:25C. Kratochvil—9230P. Vodal—1111113
LJun 21 · 14:50C. Kratochvil—7230P. Vodal—1111113
LJun 9 · 17:55C. Kratochvil—5970P. Vodal—1111113
LJun 9 · 15:50C. Kratochvil—611871P. Vodal—11811113
LMay 31 · 12:25C. Kratochvil—118811P. Vodal—41111113
WMay 23 · 16:55C. Kratochvil—11611123P. Vodal—3117101
WMay 10 · 18:00C. Kratochvil—118811133P. Vodal—711119112
LMay 10 · 15:55C. Kratochvil—101040P. Vodal—1212113
WApr 19 · 16:20C. Kratochvil—1111113P. Vodal—9860
WDec 28 · 09:20C. Kratochvil—11811113P. Vodal—711681
C. Kratochvil10
LSep 8 · 17:55J. Osmera1.7391111113C. Kratochvil2.00116781LSep 8 · 17:25C. Kratochvil1.7310840V. Koutnik2.001211113LSep 8 · 15:55J. Osmera1.73511411113C. Kratochvil2.0011911992LSep 8 · 15:25A. Jr2.2011711113C. Kratochvil1.61911291WAug 31 · 22:25C. Kratochvil1.9012811123M. Juhasz1.8010119101WAug 31 · 21:25C. Kratochvil1.571111113Z. Vyskocil2.259950WAug 31 · 19:55M. Juhasz1.6111128141C. Kratochvil2.2051411163LAug 31 · 19:25T. Barsa1.80811118113C. Kratochvil1.9111781192LAug 19 · 22:35C. Kratochvil3.1567111182T. Barsa1.30111179113WAug 19 · 20:55M. Zajicek1.61119115152C. Kratochvil2.20811911173
P. Vodal10
LSep 11 · 10:30T. Hnizdil1.251211113P. Vodal3.7510870WSep 11 · 09:25B. Budik1.711178101P. Vodal2.0041111123LSep 11 · 08:25P. Vodal3.405711111T. Hnizdil1.3011117133WSep 11 · 06:55V. Koutnik1.5761111872P. Vodal2.25116611113LSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192WSep 6 · 08:50B. Budik1.5361181192P. Vodal2.38117119113WSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962LSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972LSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141
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