TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13153803
Played Sep 18Finished
Lukas Dominik Rek
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210116116––––
Ales Brandtl Jr
Away
2.45
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeLukas Dominik Rek to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Dominik Rek above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 56 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Lukas Dominik Rek at 64.8%
56 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dominik Rek 7–6 Ales Brandtl Jr Ales Brandtl Jr has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Rek beat Jr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:29What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Rek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rek 1539 vs Jr 1439
Rek
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rek 60% vs Jr 40%
Rek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rek 70% vs Jr 40%
Rek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rek +3 · Jr +1
Rek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Rek)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRek 1.50 / Jr 2.45
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Rek)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13153803
Rek1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 64 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it74% 46 of 62
Jr2.45
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 71 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back28% 30 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRek5wins
AwayJr5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRek57.1%4 of 7
AwayJr66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rek7Jr3n = 10Rek took 7 of 10
S2Rek6Jr4n = 10Rek took 6 of 10
S3Rek2Jr8n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S4Rek4Jr3n = 7Rek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRekJrR − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.134.0+0.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRekJrBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 249 vs 248 / 53159.4%46.7%148 / 249 vs 248 / 531Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekRek 1.50/Jr 2.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 11:50L. Rek3711114113A. Jr33681181
WSep 6 · 14:04L. Rek331111113A. Jr217680
LSep 6 · 10:55L. Rek4313115772A. Jr521181111113
LSep 5 · 11:25L. Rek238780A. Jr331111113
WAug 31 · 07:25L. Rek4061112113A. Jr321181031
LAug 9 · 21:55L. Rek218580A. Jr331111113
WAug 9 · 19:25L. Rek4111118113A. Jr32961161
LJun 26 · 16:55L. Rek33116881A. Jr4181111113
WMay 15 · 22:30L. Rek3511112113A. Jr25721151
LMay 15 · 20:25L. Rek35119871A. Jr3851111113
L. Rek10
WSep 18 · 12:50T. Jr3.0061161132L. Rek1.36115110113WSep 18 · 11:50L. Rek1.5711114113A. Jr2.25681181WSep 18 · 10:20P. Kubat2.0041111462L. Rek1.73118611113LSep 13 · 14:25L. Rek2.255540J. Sebl1.551111113LSep 13 · 13:25D. Zelezny1.731114113L. Rek2.0071280WSep 13 · 12:25L. Rek2.50111189113J. Sebl1.5088111152WSep 13 · 10:55L. Jirka1.7388191152L. Rek2.001111173113WSep 12 · 14:30L. Rek1.85121199113C. Kratochvil1.85109111162LSep 12 · 12:55L. Rek1.73117761C. Kratochvil2.0091111113WSep 12 · 11:55L. Rek1.801111133P. Vodal1.9158110
A. Jr10
WSep 18 · 12:20P. Kubat2.6310820A. Jr1.441211113LSep 18 · 11:50L. Rek1.5711114113A. Jr2.25681181WSep 18 · 10:50A. Jr1.73121511113T. Jr2.001017671LSep 15 · 17:20A. Jr1.801378101T. Jr1.91111111123LSep 15 · 16:50A. Jr1.835740T. Rein1.831111113WSep 15 · 15:20T. Jr2.00101112962A. Jr1.731291011113LSep 15 · 14:50D. Zelezny1.361111123A. Jr3.0097100LSep 9 · 13:30T. Jr2.0041111113A. Jr1.73116581WSep 9 · 12:50A. Jr3.751113511113T. Hnizdil1.25131111962LSep 9 · 11:20F. Dvorak1.731111113A. Jr2.008680
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