TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13120606
Played Sep 12Finished
Lukas Dominik Rek
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210119911911116
Christian Kratochvil
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingLukas Dominik Rek above · Christian Kratochvil below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-6
Point 97 set 5, 9-6
97 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Lukas Dominik Rek 2–3 Christian Kratochvil Lukas Dominik Rek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Kratochvil beat Rek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kratochvil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kratochvil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRek 1.85 / Kratochvil 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kratochvil)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13120606
Rek1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Kratochvil1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeRek2wins
AwayKratochvil3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderKratochvil leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRek50%2 of 4
AwayKratochviln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rek4Kratochvil1n = 5Rek took 4 of 5
S2Rek0Kratochvil5n = 5Kratochvil took 5 of 5
S3Rek3Kratochvil2n = 5Rek took 3 of 5
S4Rek0Kratochvil4n = 4Kratochvil took 4 of 4
S5Rek2Kratochvil1n = 3Rek took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricRekKratochvilR − KBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match38.840.0−1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRekKratochvilBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 242 vs 239 / 42559.1%56.2%143 / 242 vs 239 / 425Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KratochvilRek 1.85/Kratochvil 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kratochvil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 12 · 12:55L. Rek31117761C. Kratochvil4291111113
LJun 9 · 14:50L. Rek49111111882C. Kratochvil47413811113
WMay 16 · 11:55L. Rek46118115113C. Kratochvil4041151192
LApr 26 · 09:55L. Rek237970C. Kratochvil331111113
WApr 26 · 08:50L. Rek45116116113C. Kratochvil3871131162
L. Rek10
LSep 12 · 12:55L. Rek1.73117761C. Kratochvil2.0091111113WSep 12 · 11:55L. Rek1.801111133P. Vodal1.9158110WSep 12 · 10:55L. Rek1.801112113V. Koutnik1.9191080WSep 11 · 17:23L. Rek1.30116811113T. Rein3.4081111562LSep 11 · 16:20L. Rek1.408530D. Zelezny2.751111113WSep 11 · 15:20L. Rek1.331111113T. Rein3.259460LSep 11 · 14:20L. Rek2.257760J. Sebl1.571111113WSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101LSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113
C. Kratochvil10
WSep 12 · 12:55L. Rek1.73117761C. Kratochvil2.0091111113LSep 12 · 12:25V. Koutnik1.401111511113C. Kratochvil2.7513811322WSep 12 · 11:25C. Kratochvil2.3811156113P. Vodal1.539131171WSep 12 · 10:04C. Kratochvil1.281111113T. Rein3.508940WSep 12 · 08:55T. Rein3.40691261C. Kratochvil1.30111110113WSep 12 · 08:25B. Budik1.50812111192C. Kratochvil2.35111444113LSep 12 · 07:25C. Kratochvil2.25610110P. Vodal1.571112133LSep 8 · 17:55J. Osmera1.7391111113C. Kratochvil2.00116781LSep 8 · 17:25C. Kratochvil1.7310840V. Koutnik2.001211113LSep 8 · 15:55J. Osmera1.73511411113C. Kratochvil2.0011911992
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