TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13149340
Played Sep 18Finished
Petr Kubat
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012811211––––
Ales Brandtl Jr
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Kubat to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Kubat above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 54 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Petr Kubat at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Petr Kubat 3–1 Ales Brandtl Jr Ales Brandtl Jr has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:58What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Kubat
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubat 1401 vs Jr 1412
Jr
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubat 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubat 20% vs Jr 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubat -2 · Jr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubat 2.63 / Jr 1.44
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Jr)-0.0pp
TT Cup · #13149340
Kubat2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 14 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back12% 3 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Jr1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 39 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it65% 26 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKubat3wins
AwayJr1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKubat leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubat75%3 of 4
AwayJrn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubat4Jr0n = 4Kubat took 4 of 4
S2Kubat2Jr2n = 4split evenly
S3Kubat2Jr2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKubatJrK − JBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match37.029.8+7.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubatJrBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 219 vs 247 / 53036.5%46.6%80 / 219 vs 247 / 530Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrKubat 2.63/Jr 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 27 · 15:20P. Kubat32119661A. Jr3851111113
WAug 14 · 13:30P. Kubat48119611113A. Jr3961111292
WAug 14 · 10:50P. Kubat351113113A. Jr2251160
WAug 12 · 16:20P. Kubat331111113A. Jr208660
P. Kubat10
LSep 18 · 11:20P. Kubat1.61681361T. Jr2.20111111113LSep 18 · 10:20P. Kubat2.0041111462L. Rek1.73118611113WAug 27 · 17:25P. Kubat1.9114711143P. Vodal1.8012119121WAug 27 · 16:50P. Kubat2.1011119113P. Vodal1.67741181LAug 27 · 15:20A. Jr2.7551111113P. Kubat1.40119661LAug 27 · 14:50T. Rein1.331111113P. Kubat3.253540LAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102LAug 25 · 21:25P. Kubat2.255990J. Cousin1.571111113LAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142LAug 25 · 19:25L. Jirka1.501111113P. Kubat2.502520
A. Jr10
LSep 18 · 11:50L. Rek1.5711114113A. Jr2.25681181WSep 18 · 10:50A. Jr1.73121511113T. Jr2.001017671LSep 15 · 17:20A. Jr1.801378101T. Jr1.91111111123LSep 15 · 16:50A. Jr1.835740T. Rein1.831111113WSep 15 · 15:20T. Jr2.00101112962A. Jr1.731291011113LSep 15 · 14:50D. Zelezny1.361111123A. Jr3.0097100LSep 9 · 13:30T. Jr2.0041111113A. Jr1.73116581WSep 9 · 12:50A. Jr3.751113511113T. Hnizdil1.25131111962LSep 9 · 11:20F. Dvorak1.731111113A. Jr2.008680WAug 27 · 15:20A. Jr2.7551111113P. Kubat1.40119661
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