TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13147615
Played Sep 17Finished
Michal Moravec
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119118911115––
Karel Baros
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:51 and never touched — 64.2% is still 64.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Moravec to win
64.2%
64.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Moravec above · Karel Baros below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 75 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Michal Moravec at 64.2%
75 points played in total.
H2H Michal Moravec 1–0 Karel Baros Karel Baros has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Moravec beat Baros 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:51What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1614 vs Baros 1520
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 100% vs Baros 40%
Moravec
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 90% vs Baros 50%
Moravec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +5 · Baros +1
Moravec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.50 / Baros 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Moravec)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13147615
Moravec1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 45 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it73% 32 of 44
Baros2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 18 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back40% 8 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back20% 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMoravec1wins
AwayBaros0wins
Moravec leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMoravecBarosM − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match40.035.0+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 380 vs 148 / 27150.5%54.6%192 / 380 vs 148 / 271Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.50/Baros 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 17 · 15:10M. Moravec4011711113K. Baros35911781
M. Moravec10
WSep 17 · 15:40A. Cizek2.505118111M. Moravec1.5011811133WSep 17 · 15:10K. Baros2.50911781M. Moravec1.5011711113WSep 17 · 14:10M. Moravec1.501111113T. Molin2.507870WSep 16 · 13:10M. Moravec1.731112123D. Pawlik2.00710100WSep 16 · 12:10M. Moravec1.831111133L. Dzida1.8399110WSep 16 · 10:40D. Pawlik1.8314960M. Moravec1.831611113WSep 16 · 10:10T. Kindl1.57791191M. Moravec2.2511117113WSep 13 · 20:45M. Moravec1.831110145113R. Sedlacek1.83612121162WSep 13 · 20:10M. Moravec1.911011119113R. Sedlacek1.8012581152LSep 13 · 18:40M. Macurak1.7311911113M. Moravec2.00211791
K. Baros10
WSep 17 · 16:10T. Molin2.38131191162K. Baros1.53156117113LSep 17 · 15:10K. Baros2.50911781M. Moravec1.5011711113WSep 17 · 13:40A. Cizek1.675811121K. Baros2.1011116143LSep 11 · 17:10A. Drozd2.051113113K. Baros1.6891160LSep 11 · 15:40K. Baros1.7311178482J. Volny2.005151111113WSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 13:40K. Baros1.8011611113O. Skvor1.91711661LSep 8 · 17:00K. Baros1.909720D. Osvald1.801111113LSep 8 · 15:45A. Kanak1.5051311113K. Baros2.501111741WSep 8 · 15:15D. Osvald1.577111051K. Baros2.2511512113
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