TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124950
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
112911117119––
Michal Moravec
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:49 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Macurak to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 71 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Michal Macurak at 56.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 7–8 Michal Moravec Michal Macurak has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:49What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Macurak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1705 vs Moravec 1487
Macurak
Correct
both rated, 217 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 60% vs Moravec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 70% vs Moravec 30%
Macurak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak +3 · Moravec +2
Macurak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Macurak)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 1.73 / Moravec 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Macurak)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13124950
Macurak1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 60 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it76% 38 of 50
Moravec2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 38 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back26% 13 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMacurak6wins
AwayMoravec4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMacurak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak66.7%4 of 6
AwayMoravec50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak6Moravec4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S2Macurak7Moravec3n = 10Macurak took 7 of 10
S3Macurak3Moravec7n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S4Macurak5Moravec3n = 8Macurak took 5 of 8
S5Macurak2Moravec2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMacurakMoravecMacurak − MoravecBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.039.4+0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 477 vs 183 / 37050.9%49.5%243 / 477 vs 183 / 370Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakMacurak 1.73/Moravec 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Macurak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 14:40M. Macurak3851111742M. Moravec49117911113
WAug 12 · 18:15M. Macurak351111133M. Moravec1816110
WAug 3 · 11:15M. Macurak4211119113M. Moravec35781191
LJul 28 · 12:40M. Macurak341194101M. Moravec4281111123
LJul 28 · 11:10M. Macurak4211136842M. Moravec506111111113
WJul 17 · 15:15M. Macurak50811911113M. Moravec4711811892
WJun 26 · 15:15M. Macurak6112121214113M. Moravec551014141252
WMay 10 · 19:15M. Macurak4181111113M. Moravec30112981
LMar 30 · 12:10M. Macurak198650M. Moravec331111113
WFeb 20 · 14:15M. Macurak3811115113M. Moravec35781191
M. Macurak10
LSep 13 · 19:40M. Macurak1.67101191182D. Jr2.10124116113WSep 13 · 17:40M. Macurak1.611111113R. Sedlacek2.203340WSep 13 · 16:50R. Benes1.8365111132M. Macurak1.83111169113WSep 13 · 15:40M. Macurak1.7311119113J. Krupnik2.00741141LSep 13 · 14:40M. Macurak2.008811111R. Benes1.7311119133LSep 13 · 13:40M. Macurak1.71131112141D. Jr2.0015914163WSep 12 · 13:10M. Macurak1.701131111123D. Jr2.05911713102LSep 12 · 11:40M. Macurak2.2012970J. Pribyl1.611411113WSep 12 · 10:40M. Macurak1.831111113A. Kanak1.838780WSep 12 · 09:40M. Macurak1.531111113D. Jr2.389760
M. Moravec10
WSep 13 · 20:10M. Moravec1.911011119113R. Sedlacek1.8012581152WSep 13 · 18:10D. Jr1.8011119792M. Moravec1.91991111113WSep 1 · 12:39M. Moravec1.5014311153A. Cizek2.5012112131LSep 1 · 12:10M. Moravec2.007880T. Kindl1.731111113WSep 1 · 10:40A. Cizek2.109710M. Moravec1.671111113LSep 1 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.801114113M. Moravec1.9131280LSep 1 · 08:55B. Mrowetz1.111115123M. Moravec6.00913100LSep 1 · 07:45J. Krupnik1.69811128113M. Moravec1.96116101162LSep 1 · 07:15I. Heuman1.64611911113M. Moravec2.0411711562LSep 1 · 06:15M. Moravec1.981081191B. Mrowetz1.7312118113
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