TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13117668
Played Sep 12Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117116––––
Dalibor Velky Jr
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:43 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Macurak to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 55 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Michal Macurak at 63.2%
55 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 6–10 Dalibor Velky Jr Michal Macurak has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:43What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Macurak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Jr
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1679 vs Jr 1560
Macurak
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 40% vs Jr 20%
Macurak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 60% vs Jr 30%
Macurak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak +1 · Jr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Macurak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 1.53 / Jr 2.38
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Macurak)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13117668
Macurak1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 66 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it70% 41 of 59
Jr2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 121 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back29% 34 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMacurak4wins
AwayJr6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak16.7%1 of 6
AwayJr25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak6Jr4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S2Macurak3Jr7n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S3Macurak6Jr4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S4Macurak5Jr4n = 9Macurak took 5 of 9
S5Macurak1Jr4n = 5Jr took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMacurakJrM − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.740.6+1.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakJrBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 468 vs 259 / 51950.6%49.9%237 / 468 vs 259 / 519Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakMacurak 1.53/Jr 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.2%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Macurak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 05:40M. Macurak—91111113D. Jr—116861
WSep 4 · 08:10M. Macurak—51111113D. Jr—116471
LAug 20 · 06:45M. Macurak—11381452D. Jr—5111112113
WAug 13 · 10:45M. Macurak—118114113D. Jr—71141182
LAug 7 · 08:10M. Macurak—111381192D. Jr—615113113
LAug 5 · 12:39M. Macurak—11711992D. Jr—911411113
LAug 5 · 10:40M. Macurak—10680D. Jr—1211113
LJul 28 · 08:48M. Macurak—1174101D. Jr—91111123
WJul 28 · 05:40M. Macurak—71911113D. Jr—1117461
LJul 2 · 06:15M. Macurak—117111092D. Jr—811712113
M. Macurak10
WSep 12 · 10:40M. Macurak1.831111113A. Kanak1.838780WSep 11 · 12:33M. Macurak1.831111116113T. Krenek1.8361381192LSep 11 · 11:40M. Macurak1.6161111732J. Krupnik2.20117811113WSep 11 · 10:40M. Macurak1.8311411113T. Krenek1.83711891LSep 11 · 09:40M. Macurak1.575690D. Pawlik2.251111113LSep 8 · 09:10J. Gembala1.63911811113M. Macurak2.0611311482LSep 8 · 07:40M. Macurak2.10571191J. Gembala1.6711118113WSep 8 · 06:40M. Macurak1.911111123T. Krenek1.8097100WSep 8 · 05:40M. Macurak1.5091111113D. Jr2.50116861WSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991
D. Jr10
WSep 8 · 12:35T. Kindl1.67791351D. Jr2.10111111113LSep 8 · 12:10D. Jr2.254990T. Kindl1.571111113LSep 8 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.571141111113D. Jr2.2561191362LSep 8 · 10:10T. Krenek1.611211113D. Jr2.2010890LSep 8 · 08:38D. Jr1.91815120T. Krenek1.801117143WSep 8 · 08:10T. Krenek1.61316671D. Jr2.20111411113LSep 8 · 07:10D. Jr2.63714991J. Gembala1.44111211113LSep 8 · 05:40M. Macurak1.5091111113D. Jr2.50116861WSep 7 · 12:40R. Benes1.8087100D. Jr1.911111123LSep 7 · 12:10R. Benes1.9111611113D. Jr1.80711681
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