TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13112433
Played Sep 11Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117411118119––
Tomas Krenek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Macurak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Tomas Krenek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 72 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Michal Macurak at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 12–12 Tomas Krenek Dead even across their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:45What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Krenek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-12 in 24
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1660 vs Krenek 1567
Macurak
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 40% vs Krenek 0%
Macurak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 60% vs Krenek 30%
Macurak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak -3 · Krenek -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Macurak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krenek form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 1.83 / Krenek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Macurak)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13112433
Macurak1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Krenek1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMacurak3wins
AwayKrenek7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKrenek leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak50%2 of 4
AwayKrenek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak4Krenek6n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S2Macurak6Krenek4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S3Macurak5Krenek5n = 10split evenly
S4Macurak3Krenek5n = 8Krenek took 5 of 8
S5Macurak1Krenek4n = 5Krenek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMacurakKrenekM − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.041.6−3.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakKrenekBasisWin rate · lifetime235 / 465 vs 453 / 90150.5%50.3%235 / 465 vs 453 / 901Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakMacurak 1.83/Krenek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Macurak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 06:40M. Macurak—1111123T. Krenek—97100
LAug 24 · 11:10M. Macurak—11112902T. Krenek—991111113
LAug 19 · 11:45M. Macurak—12114462T. Krenek—1051111113
LAug 18 · 10:10M. Macurak—1212891T. Krenek—141011113
LAug 7 · 05:40M. Macurak—98111162T. Krenek—111163113
WJul 2 · 10:15M. Macurak—118119143T. Krenek—711611122
LJul 2 · 09:15M. Macurak—91141142T. Krenek—115117113
WJul 2 · 07:45M. Macurak—81112113T. Krenek—1171041
LJun 28 · 15:40M. Macurak—2611101T. Krenek—11119123
LApr 1 · 06:40M. Macurak—91260T. Krenek—1114113
M. Macurak10
WSep 11 · 12:33M. Macurak1.831111116113T. Krenek1.8361381192LSep 11 · 11:40M. Macurak1.6161111732J. Krupnik2.20117811113LSep 11 · 09:40M. Macurak1.575690D. Pawlik2.251111113LSep 8 · 09:10J. Gembala1.63911811113M. Macurak2.0611311482LSep 8 · 07:40M. Macurak2.10571191J. Gembala1.6711118113WSep 8 · 06:40M. Macurak1.911111123T. Krenek1.8097100WSep 8 · 05:40M. Macurak1.5091111113D. Jr2.50116861WSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991WSep 6 · 19:40D. Skulina1.6711119492M. Macurak2.10771111113WSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113
T. Krenek10
LSep 11 · 12:33M. Macurak1.831111116113T. Krenek1.8361381192LSep 11 · 12:10T. Krenek1.737650D. Pawlik2.001111113LSep 11 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.91711118113T. Krenek1.8011341152LSep 11 · 08:38J. Krupnik1.8091311113T. Krenek1.911111491LSep 11 · 08:10J. Krupnik2.0016117113T. Krenek1.731441171LSep 11 · 07:10T. Krenek2.107111191J. Gembala1.6711137113LSep 11 · 05:40A. Vitasek1.5311117113T. Krenek2.38961181LSep 8 · 13:05T. Krenek1.91124581J. Skvrna1.80101111113LSep 8 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.731171011123T. Krenek2.00811129102LSep 8 · 06:40M. Macurak1.911111123T. Krenek1.8097100
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