TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13112517
Played Sep 11Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711113114811115
Tomas Krenek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Tomas Krenek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 82 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Tomas Krenek at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 42–39 Tomas Krenek Tomas Krenek has won 39 of their 81 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Krupnik beat Krenek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:13What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Krenek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-39 in 81
Krupnik
Correct
gap of 3 in 81, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1628 vs Krenek 1586
Krupnik
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 80% vs Krenek 0%
Krupnik
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 80% vs Krenek 30%
Krupnik
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik +2 · Krenek -5
Krenek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krupnik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krenek form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.91 / Krenek 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krupnik)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13112517
Krupnik1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 110 of 222
Down 0–1, comes back30% 27 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Krenek1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 128 of 237
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it74% 87 of 117
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik6wins
AwayKrenek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKrupnik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik75%3 of 4
AwayKrenek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik4Krenek6n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S2Krupnik7Krenek3n = 10Krupnik took 7 of 10
S3Krupnik6Krenek4n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S4Krupnik5Krenek5n = 10split evenly
S5Krupnik2Krenek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikKrenekKrupnik − KrenekBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.642.9−0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikKrenekBasisWin rate · lifetime446 / 865 vs 453 / 90051.6%50.3%446 / 865 vs 453 / 900Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.91/Krenek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 08:38J. Krupnik—91311113T. Krenek—1111491
WSep 11 · 08:10J. Krupnik—16117113T. Krenek—1441171
WAug 25 · 09:10J. Krupnik—131110153T. Krenek—11712131
LAug 25 · 07:40J. Krupnik—101111852T. Krenek—126911113
WAug 19 · 10:15J. Krupnik—561111113T. Krenek—11119852
LAug 19 · 09:20J. Krupnik—11127952T. Krenek—3101111113
LAug 19 · 07:15J. Krupnik—411961T. Krenek—11811113
WAug 18 · 12:10J. Krupnik—1213113113T. Krenek—141191162
LAug 16 · 14:15J. Krupnik—6411121T. Krenek—11119143
WAug 12 · 12:38J. Krupnik—11811123T. Krenek—9119101
J. Krupnik10
LSep 11 · 13:05J. Krupnik1.734950D. Pawlik2.001111113WSep 11 · 11:40M. Macurak1.6161111732J. Krupnik2.20117811113WSep 11 · 11:10D. Pawlik2.101171061J. Krupnik1.6761112113WSep 11 · 08:38J. Krupnik1.8091311113T. Krenek1.911111491WSep 11 · 08:10J. Krupnik2.0016117113T. Krenek1.731441171LSep 11 · 06:40A. Vitasek1.73121311153J. Krupnik2.0014115131WSep 11 · 06:10J. Gembala1.6181181152J. Krupnik2.20119116113WSep 10 · 09:20D. Pawlik1.832141161J. Krupnik1.8311162113WSep 10 · 07:45J. Krupnik1.7361213113T. Grmela2.0011101171WSep 10 · 06:45J. Krupnik2.00741111113R. Benes1.7311113662
T. Krenek10
LSep 11 · 12:33M. Macurak1.831111116113T. Krenek1.8361381192LSep 11 · 12:10T. Krenek1.737650D. Pawlik2.001111113LSep 11 · 10:40M. Macurak1.8311411113T. Krenek1.83711891LSep 11 · 08:38J. Krupnik1.8091311113T. Krenek1.911111491LSep 11 · 08:10J. Krupnik2.0016117113T. Krenek1.731441171LSep 11 · 07:10T. Krenek2.107111191J. Gembala1.6711137113LSep 11 · 05:40A. Vitasek1.5311117113T. Krenek2.38961181LSep 8 · 13:05T. Krenek1.91124581J. Skvrna1.80101111113LSep 8 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.731171011123T. Krenek2.00811129102WSep 8 · 11:10T. Kindl1.831291191T. Krenek1.83101113113
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