TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106587
Played Sep 10Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711411113116116
Radek Benes
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 81 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jan Krupnik at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 29–36 Radek Benes Jan Krupnik has won 29 of their 65 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:46What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-36 in 65
Benes
Wrong
gap of 7 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1580 vs Benes 1603
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 60% vs Benes 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 60% vs Benes 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik -1 · Benes +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 2.00 / Benes 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Benes)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13106587
Krupnik2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 108 of 220
Down 0–1, comes back29% 26 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 41
Benes1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 189 of 340
Up 2–0, closes it95% 77 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it74% 125 of 169
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik5wins
AwayBenes5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik57.1%4 of 7
AwayBenes66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik7Benes3n = 10Krupnik took 7 of 10
S2Krupnik4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S3Krupnik5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S4Krupnik3Benes3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikBenesK − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.433.1+1.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime441 / 859 vs 488 / 93551.3%52.2%441 / 859 vs 488 / 935Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesKrupnik 2.00/Benes 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 14:10J. Krupnik—81111143R. Benes—1179121
WAug 25 · 06:10J. Krupnik—1111113R. Benes—7480
LAug 23 · 19:10J. Krupnik—11511392R. Benes—711611113
LAug 6 · 08:10J. Krupnik—11970R. Benes—1311113
LJul 27 · 10:40J. Krupnik—118691R. Benes—81111113
WJul 23 · 10:45J. Krupnik—1111113R. Benes—4790
WJul 23 · 06:15J. Krupnik—11118113R. Benes—841191
LJul 22 · 10:40J. Krupnik—8630R. Benes—1111113
WJul 8 · 10:10J. Krupnik—111111113R. Benes—613751
LJul 8 · 09:05J. Krupnik—118671R. Benes—21111113
J. Krupnik10
LSep 10 · 05:45J. Krupnik1.6111117592D. Pawlik2.20871111113WSep 8 · 21:15D. Skulina1.7357110J. Krupnik2.001111133WSep 8 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.531111113A. Cizek2.385970LSep 8 · 18:45D. Skulina1.801211143J. Krupnik1.91104120WSep 8 · 18:15J. Lisztwan1.831061151J. Krupnik1.8312119113WSep 7 · 20:45R. Sedlacek1.8311690J. Krupnik1.831311113LSep 7 · 19:45D. Skulina1.801111113J. Krupnik1.917950LSep 7 · 19:15R. Sedlacek1.91121176123J. Krupnik1.801061111102WSep 7 · 18:15J. Krupnik1.73915115113J. Travnicek2.00111391162WSep 5 · 12:40J. Krupnik1.3611711113E. Precek3.00911261
R. Benes10
WSep 10 · 06:15T. Grmela1.73561781R. Benes2.00111115113LSep 9 · 12:39R. Benes1.4091270L. Kantor2.751114113LSep 9 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.7311811133R. Benes2.006119111WSep 9 · 11:10L. Kantor2.63691161R. Benes1.4411118113WSep 9 · 10:10R. Benes1.80411611113R. Sedlacek1.9111511892LSep 9 · 09:19D. Pawlik1.801113113R. Benes1.9171190WSep 9 · 07:40R. Benes1.8012911113R. Sedlacek1.911011691WSep 9 · 06:40R. Benes1.73111197113D. Pawlik2.0089111142LSep 9 · 05:40R. Benes1.611471112102L. Lasota2.201611610123LSep 7 · 12:40R. Benes1.8087100D. Jr1.911111123
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