TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106193
Played Sep 10Finished
Tomas Grmela
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5116111715811––
Radek Benes
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Grmela to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Grmela above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 17-15
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 84 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Tomas Grmela at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Grmela 2–2 Radek Benes Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:24What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Grmela
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grmela 1591 vs Benes 1603
Benes
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grmela 40% vs Benes 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grmela 60% vs Benes 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grmela +1 · Benes -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Grmela)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grmela form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrmela 1.73 / Benes 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Grmela)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13106193
Grmela1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite42% won 5 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Benes2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 75 of 167
Down 0–1, comes back27% 25 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeGrmela2wins
AwayBenes2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grmela2Benes2n = 4split evenly
S2Grmela2Benes2n = 4split evenly
S3Grmela3Benes1n = 4Grmela took 3 of 4
S4Grmela1Benes2n = 3Benes took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricGrmelaBenesG − BBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match36.236.8−0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrmelaBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime18 / 41 vs 488 / 93543.9%52.2%18 / 41 vs 488 / 935Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrmelaGrmela 1.73/Benes 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Grmela · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 10 · 06:15T. Grmela—561781R. Benes—111115113
WAug 11 · 10:10T. Grmela—61111113R. Benes—118981
WAug 11 · 08:40T. Grmela—1111113R. Benes—8450
LAug 11 · 07:10T. Grmela—1151471R. Benes—81116113
T. Grmela10
WAug 27 · 20:45D. Vitasek2.0012560T. Grmela1.731411113LAug 27 · 19:45F. Chaloupka1.731111113T. Grmela2.004770LAug 27 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.25111245113T. Grmela1.57810111192LAug 27 · 18:15T. Grmela1.911259101J. Krupnik1.80101111123WAug 27 · 16:47T. Grmela1.83121183113K. Kleprlik1.83109111152WAug 27 · 16:15T. Grmela2.2071114123K. Kleprlik1.6111912101WAug 27 · 14:45J. Skvrna1.5012811542T. Grmela2.501011911113LAug 27 · 14:15T. Krenek1.57111110113T. Grmela2.25971261WAug 21 · 17:10T. Krenek1.43812100T. Grmela2.501114123WAug 21 · 15:45A. Cizek1.83712591T. Grmela1.83111011113
R. Benes10
LSep 10 · 06:45J. Krupnik2.00741111113R. Benes1.7311113662LSep 9 · 12:39R. Benes1.4091270L. Kantor2.751114113LSep 9 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.7311811133R. Benes2.006119111WSep 9 · 11:10L. Kantor2.63691161R. Benes1.4411118113WSep 9 · 10:10R. Benes1.80411611113R. Sedlacek1.9111511892LSep 9 · 09:19D. Pawlik1.801113113R. Benes1.9171190WSep 9 · 07:40R. Benes1.8012911113R. Sedlacek1.911011691WSep 9 · 06:40R. Benes1.73111197113D. Pawlik2.0089111142LSep 9 · 05:40R. Benes1.611471112102L. Lasota2.201611610123LSep 7 · 12:40R. Benes1.8087100D. Jr1.911111123
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