TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13028785
Played Aug 27Finished
Tomas Grmela
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
71111914121210––
Kamil Kleprlik
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:49 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Grmela to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Grmela above · Kamil Kleprlik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 86 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Tomas Grmela at 57.5%
86 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Grmela 2–1 Kamil Kleprlik Kamil Kleprlik has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 05:49What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kleprlik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grmela 1588 vs Kleprlik 1581
Grmela
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grmela 80% vs Kleprlik 20%
Grmela
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grmela 50% vs Kleprlik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grmela +1 · Kleprlik -3
Kleprlik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kleprlik) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kleprlik form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrmela 2.20 / Kleprlik 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Kleprlik)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13028785
Grmela2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 11 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back20% 2 of 10
Kleprlik1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 54 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it74% 40 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeGrmela2wins
AwayKleprlik1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderGrmela leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grmela2Kleprlik1n = 3Grmela took 2 of 3
S2Grmela2Kleprlik1n = 3Grmela took 2 of 3
S3Grmela1Kleprlik2n = 3Kleprlik took 2 of 3
S4Grmela1Kleprlik2n = 3Kleprlik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricGrmelaKleprlikG − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match38.342.7−4.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrmelaKleprlikBasisWin rate · lifetime17 / 39 vs 237 / 48143.6%49.3%17 / 39 vs 237 / 481Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.539.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KleprlikGrmela 2.20/Kleprlik 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Kleprlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Grmela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 27 · 16:47T. Grmela—121183113K. Kleprlik—109111152
WAug 27 · 16:15T. Grmela—71114123K. Kleprlik—11912101
LJul 27 · 14:15T. Grmela—116451K. Kleprlik—71111113
T. Grmela10
WAug 27 · 20:45D. Vitasek2.0012560T. Grmela1.731411113LAug 27 · 19:45F. Chaloupka1.731111113T. Grmela2.004770LAug 27 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.25111245113T. Grmela1.57810111192LAug 27 · 18:15T. Grmela1.911259101J. Krupnik1.80101111123WAug 27 · 16:47T. Grmela1.83121183113K. Kleprlik1.83109111152WAug 27 · 14:45J. Skvrna1.5012811542T. Grmela2.501011911113LAug 27 · 14:15T. Krenek1.57111110113T. Grmela2.25971261WAug 21 · 17:10T. Krenek1.43812100T. Grmela2.501114123WAug 21 · 15:45A. Cizek1.83712591T. Grmela1.83111011113WAug 21 · 15:15V. Konvicka1.8363111162T. Grmela1.83111158113
K. Kleprlik10
LSep 5 · 20:58K. Kleprlik1.53118581A. Cizek2.3871111113WSep 5 · 19:45K. Kleprlik1.611111113A. Cizek2.208670WSep 5 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.53111176133T. Lysek2.38571111112LSep 5 · 17:45K. Kleprlik2.006131291I. Heuman1.73111114113LSep 4 · 21:10D. Skulina1.5761111153K. Kleprlik2.251177131WSep 4 · 20:15K. Kleprlik1.671111113J. Travnicek2.108590WSep 4 · 18:45I. Heuman1.809111410122K. Kleprlik1.911141212143LSep 4 · 18:15D. Skulina1.6161114113K. Kleprlik2.201141291WSep 4 · 16:39F. Chaloupka1.615131291K. Kleprlik2.20111114113LAug 27 · 16:47T. Grmela1.83121183113K. Kleprlik1.83109111152
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