TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13028778
Played Aug 27Finished
Jan Skvrna
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210811119511411
Tomas Grmela
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:50 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Tomas Grmela below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 92 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 59.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 4–1 Tomas Grmela Tomas Grmela has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 05:50What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Skvrna
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Skvrna
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1640 vs Grmela 1591
Skvrna
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 60% vs Grmela 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 40% vs Grmela 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna +1 · Grmela -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Skvrna) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grmela form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.50 / Grmela 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Skvrna)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13028778
Skvrna1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 217 of 376
Up 2–0, closes it96% 75 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it73% 153 of 210
Grmela2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 11 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back20% 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSkvrna4wins
AwayGrmela1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderSkvrna leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrnan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayGrmela33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna2Grmela3n = 5Grmela took 3 of 5
S2Skvrna2Grmela3n = 5Grmela took 3 of 5
S3Skvrna2Grmela3n = 5Grmela took 3 of 5
S4Skvrna3Grmela1n = 4Skvrna took 3 of 4
S5Skvrna3Grmela0n = 3Skvrna took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricSkvrnaGrmelaS − GBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match41.039.2+1.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaGrmelaBasisWin rate · lifetime437 / 754 vs 14 / 3358%42.4%437 / 754 vs 14 / 33Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.934.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSkvrna 1.50/Grmela 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Grmela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 11 · 05:40J. Skvrna—117118113T. Grmela—81141162
WAug 3 · 11:40J. Skvrna—811511113T. Grmela—11511882
WJul 27 · 18:15J. Skvrna—11914113T. Grmela—7111271
WJul 27 · 16:43J. Skvrna—511611133T. Grmela—118112112
LJul 27 · 15:45J. Skvrna—5870T. Grmela—1111113
J. Skvrna10
LSep 6 · 12:40J. Skvrna1.5711914472E. Precek2.258111211113LSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113WSep 6 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53131112113E. Precek2.381551071WSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113WSep 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111177113J. Krupnik2.1069111152LSep 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.6171180M. Macurak2.201113113WSep 5 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53115129113E. Precek2.38911101192LSep 4 · 17:10D. Skulina1.3611611113J. Skvrna3.00511681WSep 4 · 15:45F. Chaloupka2.201111581J. Skvrna1.6113911113
T. Grmela10
WAug 27 · 20:45D. Vitasek2.0012560T. Grmela1.731411113LAug 27 · 19:45F. Chaloupka1.731111113T. Grmela2.004770LAug 27 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.25111245113T. Grmela1.57810111192LAug 27 · 18:15T. Grmela1.911259101J. Krupnik1.80101111123WAug 27 · 16:47T. Grmela1.83121183113K. Kleprlik1.83109111152WAug 27 · 16:15T. Grmela2.2071114123K. Kleprlik1.6111912101LAug 27 · 14:15T. Krenek1.57111110113T. Grmela2.25971261WAug 21 · 17:10T. Krenek1.43812100T. Grmela2.501114123WAug 21 · 15:45A. Cizek1.83712591T. Grmela1.83111011113WAug 21 · 15:15V. Konvicka1.8363111162T. Grmela1.83111158113
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