TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12469473
Played Aug 21Finished
Ales Cizek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111210511911––
Tomas Grmela
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Grmela to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Tomas Grmela below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Grmela at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Ales Cizek 1–2 Tomas Grmela Ales Cizek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:54What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Grmela
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1551 vs Grmela 1613
Grmela
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 40% vs Grmela 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 40% vs Grmela 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek -1 · Grmela +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Grmela)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grmela form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 1.83 / Grmela 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Grmela)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12469473
Cizek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Grmela1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeCizek1wins
AwayGrmela2wins
Grmela leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek1Grmela2n = 3Grmela took 2 of 3
S2Cizek2Grmela1n = 3Cizek took 2 of 3
S3Cizek1Grmela2n = 3Grmela took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricCizekGrmelaC − GBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match30.333.0−2.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekGrmelaBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 426 vs 14 / 3248.8%43.8%208 / 426 vs 14 / 32Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.934.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrmelaCizek 1.83/Grmela 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Grmela · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Grmela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 21 · 15:45A. Cizek—712591T. Grmela—111011113
LAug 11 · 13:10A. Cizek—61180T. Grmela—1113113
WAug 11 · 12:10A. Cizek—1111113T. Grmela—5790
A. Cizek10
WSep 5 · 20:58K. Kleprlik1.53118581A. Cizek2.3871111113LSep 5 · 19:45K. Kleprlik1.611111113A. Cizek2.208670LSep 5 · 19:15I. Heuman1.73128116183A. Cizek2.001011611162LSep 5 · 18:15A. Cizek1.571010111192T. Lysek2.25121259113LSep 4 · 08:48A. Cizek1.5381341242L. Lasota2.3811111110113WSep 4 · 07:45A. Cizek1.80911711113L. Lasota1.9111611472LSep 4 · 06:45A. Cizek2.001112491T. Kindl1.7381411113WSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek2.1011611113L. Dzida1.67811851LSep 2 · 20:48D. Skulina1.671311113A. Cizek2.1011480LSep 2 · 19:45D. Skulina2.101111123A. Cizek1.6749100
T. Grmela10
WAug 27 · 20:45D. Vitasek2.0012560T. Grmela1.731411113LAug 27 · 19:45F. Chaloupka1.731111113T. Grmela2.004770LAug 27 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.25111245113T. Grmela1.57810111192LAug 27 · 18:15T. Grmela1.911259101J. Krupnik1.80101111123WAug 27 · 16:47T. Grmela1.83121183113K. Kleprlik1.83109111152WAug 27 · 16:15T. Grmela2.2071114123K. Kleprlik1.6111912101WAug 27 · 14:45J. Skvrna1.5012811542T. Grmela2.501011911113LAug 27 · 14:15T. Krenek1.57111110113T. Grmela2.25971261WAug 21 · 17:10T. Krenek1.43812100T. Grmela2.501114123WAug 21 · 15:15V. Konvicka1.8363111162T. Grmela1.83111158113
Upcoming Matches
A. Cizek
T. Grmela
Nothing scheduled
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