TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106046
Played Sep 10Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118117711511911
Dominik Pawlik
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:43 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 91 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jan Krupnik at 54.2%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 18–12 Dominik Pawlik Dominik Pawlik has won 12 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:43What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Krupnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-12 in 30
Krupnik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1579 vs Pawlik 1567
Krupnik
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 80% vs Pawlik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 60% vs Pawlik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik +2 · Pawlik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Krupnik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.61 / Pawlik 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Krupnik)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13106046
Krupnik1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 153 of 277
Up 2–0, closes it96% 69 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it73% 110 of 151
Pawlik2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 58 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back21% 14 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik7wins
AwayPawlik3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKrupnik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik100%5 of 5
AwayPawlik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik5Pawlik5n = 10split evenly
S2Krupnik8Pawlik2n = 10Krupnik took 8 of 10
S3Krupnik4Pawlik6n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S4Krupnik6Pawlik2n = 8Krupnik took 6 of 8
S5Krupnik2Pawlik1n = 3Krupnik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikPawlikK − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.036.4+2.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime440 / 857 vs 228 / 45551.3%50.1%440 / 857 vs 228 / 455Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.61/Pawlik 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 10:40J. Krupnik—611561D. Pawlik—11611113
WAug 25 · 07:10J. Krupnik—1111113D. Pawlik—7590
WAug 19 · 08:15J. Krupnik—911411113D. Pawlik—11611962
WAug 14 · 08:48J. Krupnik—1111113D. Pawlik—7980
LAug 14 · 05:40J. Krupnik—411101182D. Pawlik—117127113
LAug 12 · 11:10J. Krupnik—711981D. Pawlik—11811113
WAug 6 · 10:45J. Krupnik—11118123D. Pawlik—5811101
WAug 3 · 09:08J. Krupnik—11114113D. Pawlik—691171
WAug 3 · 06:10J. Krupnik—941111113D. Pawlik—11119392
WJul 23 · 09:18J. Krupnik—111311113D. Pawlik—715791
J. Krupnik10
WSep 10 · 06:45J. Krupnik2.00741111113R. Benes1.7311113662WSep 8 · 21:15D. Skulina1.7357110J. Krupnik2.001111133WSep 8 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.531111113A. Cizek2.385970LSep 8 · 18:45D. Skulina1.801211143J. Krupnik1.91104120WSep 8 · 18:15J. Lisztwan1.831061151J. Krupnik1.8312119113WSep 7 · 20:45R. Sedlacek1.8311690J. Krupnik1.831311113LSep 7 · 19:45D. Skulina1.801111113J. Krupnik1.917950LSep 7 · 19:15R. Sedlacek1.91121176123J. Krupnik1.801061111102WSep 7 · 18:15J. Krupnik1.73915115113J. Travnicek2.00111391162WSep 5 · 12:40J. Krupnik1.3611711113E. Precek3.00911261
D. Pawlik10
WSep 9 · 09:19D. Pawlik1.801113113R. Benes1.9171190WSep 9 · 08:10D. Pawlik1.83111212113L. Lasota1.834101441LSep 9 · 06:40R. Benes1.73111197113D. Pawlik2.0089111142WSep 9 · 06:10R. Sedlacek1.918611101D. Pawlik1.8011119123WSep 7 · 08:40D. Pawlik1.831171110113J. Przybyla1.8321161292WSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 07:10J. Przybyla1.801713119112D. Pawlik1.911911811133LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110LSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113
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