TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101504
Played Sep 9Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11412101214114––
Laurent Lasota
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Laurent Lasota below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 78 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Dominik Pawlik at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 3–2 Laurent Lasota Laurent Lasota has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:49What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Lasota
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1538 vs Lasota 1550
Lasota
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 80% vs Lasota 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 40% vs Lasota 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik -1 · Lasota +4
Lasota
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pawlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lasota form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.83 / Lasota 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pawlik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13101504
Pawlik1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Lasota1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePawlik3wins
AwayLasota2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderPawlik leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik75%3 of 4
AwayLasotan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik4Lasota1n = 5Pawlik took 4 of 5
S2Pawlik4Lasota1n = 5Pawlik took 4 of 5
S3Pawlik1Lasota4n = 5Lasota took 4 of 5
S4Pawlik1Lasota3n = 4Lasota took 3 of 4
S5Pawlik2Lasota1n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricPawlikLasotaP − LBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match45.442.0+3.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikLasotaBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 453 vs 140 / 28049.9%50%226 / 453 vs 140 / 280Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.83/Lasota 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik—1411391L. Lasota—16811113
LJun 21 · 11:45D. Pawlik—13991182L. Lasota—1111119113
WMar 21 · 09:55D. Pawlik—111177113L. Lasota—39111162
WMar 21 · 06:45D. Pawlik—1113169113L. Lasota—611181162
WMar 14 · 08:40D. Pawlik—1111113L. Lasota—6490
D. Pawlik10
LSep 9 · 06:40R. Benes1.73111197113D. Pawlik2.0089111142WSep 9 · 06:10R. Sedlacek1.918611101D. Pawlik1.8011119123WSep 7 · 08:40D. Pawlik1.831171110113J. Przybyla1.8321161292WSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 07:10J. Przybyla1.801713119112D. Pawlik1.911911811133LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110LSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112LSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik1.61111195113D. Pawlik2.2088111182
L. Lasota10
WSep 9 · 08:48L. Lasota1.731111113R. Sedlacek2.006830WSep 9 · 07:10L. Lasota2.0011119113R. Sedlacek1.73691181WSep 9 · 05:40R. Benes1.611471112102L. Lasota2.201611610123WSep 7 · 09:10L. Lasota2.251113113B. Mrowetz1.5581190WSep 7 · 08:10L. Lasota1.5711711113J. Przybyla2.25311691LSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172LSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113
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