TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106411
Played Sep 10Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
61112101311117––
Tomas Grmela
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:33 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Tomas Grmela below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 81 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Jan Krupnik at 54.5%
81 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 3–0 Tomas Grmela Tomas Grmela has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:33What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Krupnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Krupnik
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1592 vs Grmela 1578
Krupnik
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 60% vs Grmela 20%
Krupnik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 60% vs Grmela 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik +1 · Grmela -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Krupnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grmela form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.73 / Grmela 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Krupnik)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13106411
Krupnik1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 153 of 277
Up 2–0, closes it96% 69 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it73% 110 of 151
Grmela2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 13 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back29% 4 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKrupnik3wins
AwayGrmela0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKrupnik leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik1Grmela2n = 3Grmela took 2 of 3
S2Krupnik2Grmela1n = 3Krupnik took 2 of 3
S3Krupnik3Grmela0n = 3Krupnik took 3 of 3
S4Krupnik2Grmela1n = 3Krupnik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKrupnikGrmelaK − GBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match44.737.7+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikGrmelaBasisWin rate · lifetime442 / 860 vs 18 / 4251.4%42.9%442 / 860 vs 18 / 42Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.235.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.73/Grmela 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 10 · 07:45J. Krupnik—61213113T. Grmela—11101171
WAug 27 · 18:15J. Krupnik—101111123T. Grmela—1259101
WAug 3 · 06:40J. Krupnik—118117113T. Grmela—51151162
J. Krupnik10
WSep 10 · 06:45J. Krupnik2.00741111113R. Benes1.7311113662LSep 10 · 05:45J. Krupnik1.6111117592D. Pawlik2.20871111113WSep 8 · 21:15D. Skulina1.7357110J. Krupnik2.001111133WSep 8 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.531111113A. Cizek2.385970LSep 8 · 18:45D. Skulina1.801211143J. Krupnik1.91104120WSep 8 · 18:15J. Lisztwan1.831061151J. Krupnik1.8312119113WSep 7 · 20:45R. Sedlacek1.8311690J. Krupnik1.831311113LSep 7 · 19:45D. Skulina1.801111113J. Krupnik1.917950LSep 7 · 19:15R. Sedlacek1.91121176123J. Krupnik1.801061111102WSep 7 · 18:15J. Krupnik1.73915115113J. Travnicek2.00111391162
T. Grmela10
WSep 10 · 08:50R. Benes1.8084100T. Grmela1.911111123LSep 10 · 07:15D. Pawlik1.731111113T. Grmela2.005960LSep 10 · 06:15T. Grmela1.73561781R. Benes2.00111115113WAug 27 · 20:45D. Vitasek2.0012560T. Grmela1.731411113LAug 27 · 19:45F. Chaloupka1.731111113T. Grmela2.004770LAug 27 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.25111245113T. Grmela1.57810111192LAug 27 · 18:15T. Grmela1.911259101J. Krupnik1.80101111123WAug 27 · 16:47T. Grmela1.83121183113K. Kleprlik1.83109111152WAug 27 · 16:15T. Grmela2.2071114123K. Kleprlik1.6111912101WAug 27 · 14:45J. Skvrna1.5012811542T. Grmela2.501011911113
Upcoming Matches
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T. Grmela
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