TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106433
Played Sep 10Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115119116––––
Tomas Grmela
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:43 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Tomas Grmela below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 53 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Dominik Pawlik at 55.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 2–1 Tomas Grmela Tomas Grmela has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1578 vs Grmela 1578
Pawlik
Correct
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 80% vs Grmela 20%
Pawlik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 70% vs Grmela 50%
Pawlik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik +3 · Grmela -1
Pawlik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grmela form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.73 / Grmela 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pawlik)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13106433
Pawlik1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 71 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it78% 56 of 72
Grmela2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 13 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back29% 4 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePawlik2wins
AwayGrmela1wins
Pawlik leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik66.7%2 of 3
AwayGrmelan = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik3Grmela0n = 3Pawlik took 3 of 3
S2Pawlik2Grmela1n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
S3Pawlik2Grmela1n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricPawlikGrmelaP − GBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match34.328.3+6.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikGrmelaBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 456 vs 18 / 4250.2%42.9%229 / 456 vs 18 / 42Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.935.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.73/Grmela 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 21 · 12:44D. Pawlik—119481T. Grmela—71111113
WAug 21 · 11:45D. Pawlik—1311113T. Grmela—11340
WAug 3 · 07:40D. Pawlik—1111143T. Grmela—69120
D. Pawlik10
WSep 10 · 08:15R. Benes1.83491111102D. Pawlik1.83111198123WSep 10 · 05:45J. Krupnik1.6111117592D. Pawlik2.20871111113WSep 9 · 09:19D. Pawlik1.801113113R. Benes1.9171190WSep 9 · 08:10D. Pawlik1.83111212113L. Lasota1.834101441LSep 9 · 06:40R. Benes1.73111197113D. Pawlik2.0089111142WSep 9 · 06:10R. Sedlacek1.918611101D. Pawlik1.8011119123WSep 7 · 08:40D. Pawlik1.831171110113J. Przybyla1.8321161292WSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 07:10J. Przybyla1.801713119112D. Pawlik1.911911811133LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113
T. Grmela10
WSep 10 · 08:50R. Benes1.8084100T. Grmela1.911111123LSep 10 · 07:45J. Krupnik1.7361213113T. Grmela2.0011101171LSep 10 · 06:15T. Grmela1.73561781R. Benes2.00111115113WAug 27 · 20:45D. Vitasek2.0012560T. Grmela1.731411113LAug 27 · 19:45F. Chaloupka1.731111113T. Grmela2.004770LAug 27 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.25111245113T. Grmela1.57810111192LAug 27 · 18:15T. Grmela1.911259101J. Krupnik1.80101111123WAug 27 · 16:47T. Grmela1.83121183113K. Kleprlik1.83109111152WAug 27 · 16:15T. Grmela2.2071114123K. Kleprlik1.6111912101WAug 27 · 14:45J. Skvrna1.5012811542T. Grmela2.501011911113
Upcoming Matches
D. Pawlik
Nothing scheduled
T. Grmela
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