TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13107671
Played Sep 10Finished
Radek Benes
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4119111191181012
Dominik Pawlik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 96 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Radek Benes at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 11–10 Dominik Pawlik Dominik Pawlik has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:53What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1577 vs Pawlik 1602
Pawlik
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 40% vs Pawlik 80%
Pawlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 50% vs Pawlik 80%
Pawlik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -1 · Pawlik +4
Pawlik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.83 / Pawlik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pawlik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13107671
Benes1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Pawlik1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes4wins
AwayPawlik6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes66.7%4 of 6
AwayPawlik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes6Pawlik4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S2Benes3Pawlik7n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S3Benes4Pawlik6n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S4Benes4Pawlik3n = 7Benes took 4 of 7
S5Benes1Pawlik2n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesPawlikB − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.241.0−2.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime488 / 937 vs 231 / 45852.1%50.4%488 / 937 vs 231 / 458Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikBenes 1.83/Pawlik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 08:15R. Benes—491111102D. Pawlik—111198123
LSep 9 · 09:19R. Benes—71190D. Pawlik—1113113
WSep 9 · 06:40R. Benes—111197113D. Pawlik—89111142
WSep 2 · 07:15R. Benes—11311163D. Pawlik—9116141
WAug 25 · 08:38R. Benes—1113113D. Pawlik—71190
LAug 25 · 08:10R. Benes—99100D. Pawlik—1111123
LAug 23 · 13:40R. Benes—82131182D. Pawlik—1111117113
LAug 10 · 09:08R. Benes—118881D. Pawlik—91111113
WAug 10 · 05:40R. Benes—11115153D. Pawlik—7911131
LJul 27 · 06:40R. Benes—167871D. Pawlik—141111113
R. Benes10
LSep 10 · 08:50R. Benes1.8084100T. Grmela1.911111123LSep 10 · 06:45J. Krupnik2.00741111113R. Benes1.7311113662WSep 10 · 06:15T. Grmela1.73561781R. Benes2.00111115113LSep 9 · 12:39R. Benes1.4091270L. Kantor2.751114113LSep 9 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.7311811133R. Benes2.006119111WSep 9 · 11:10L. Kantor2.63691161R. Benes1.4411118113WSep 9 · 10:10R. Benes1.80411611113R. Sedlacek1.9111511892LSep 9 · 09:19D. Pawlik1.801113113R. Benes1.9171190WSep 9 · 07:40R. Benes1.8012911113R. Sedlacek1.911011691WSep 9 · 06:40R. Benes1.73111197113D. Pawlik2.0089111142
D. Pawlik10
WSep 10 · 07:15D. Pawlik1.731111113T. Grmela2.005960WSep 10 · 05:45J. Krupnik1.6111117592D. Pawlik2.20871111113WSep 9 · 09:19D. Pawlik1.801113113R. Benes1.9171190WSep 9 · 08:10D. Pawlik1.83111212113L. Lasota1.834101441LSep 9 · 06:40R. Benes1.73111197113D. Pawlik2.0089111142WSep 9 · 06:10R. Sedlacek1.918611101D. Pawlik1.8011119123WSep 7 · 08:40D. Pawlik1.831171110113J. Przybyla1.8321161292WSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 07:10J. Przybyla1.801713119112D. Pawlik1.911911811133LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113
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