TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13112462
Played Sep 11Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611117118711311
Jan Krupnik
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:43 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Macurak to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Jan Krupnik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 86 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Michal Macurak at 58.1%
86 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 20–12 Jan Krupnik Jan Krupnik has won 12 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:43What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Macurak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-12 in 32
Macurak
Wrong
gap of 8 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1676 vs Krupnik 1658
Macurak
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 40% vs Krupnik 80%
Krupnik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 70% vs Krupnik 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak +1 · Krupnik +4
Krupnik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Macurak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 1.61 / Krupnik 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Macurak)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13112462
Macurak1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 64 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it68% 39 of 57
Krupnik2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 110 of 222
Down 0–1, comes back30% 27 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMacurak8wins
AwayKrupnik2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMacurak leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak60%3 of 5
AwayKrupnik0%0 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak5Krupnik5n = 10split evenly
S2Macurak6Krupnik4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S3Macurak5Krupnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Macurak7Krupnik2n = 9Macurak took 7 of 9
S5Macurak3Krupnik0n = 3Macurak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMacurakKrupnikM − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.736.5+4.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakKrupnikBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 466 vs 448 / 86750.6%51.7%236 / 466 vs 448 / 867Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakMacurak 1.61/Krupnik 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 10:15M. Macurak—11611113J. Krupnik—611751
WSep 4 · 09:40M. Macurak—611911113J. Krupnik—11811882
WSep 4 · 09:09M. Macurak—611911113J. Krupnik—11811882
WSep 4 · 06:10M. Macurak—51311113J. Krupnik—1111961
WAug 23 · 20:10M. Macurak—21111113J. Krupnik—117751
LAug 19 · 12:39M. Macurak—128971J. Krupnik—101111113
WAug 19 · 10:45M. Macurak—41311113J. Krupnik—1111371
WAug 18 · 12:45M. Macurak—1111113J. Krupnik—6380
WAug 18 · 11:10M. Macurak—146811113J. Krupnik—121111652
LAug 11 · 17:10M. Macurak—1198111J. Krupnik—51111133
M. Macurak10
WSep 11 · 12:33M. Macurak1.831111116113T. Krenek1.8361381192WSep 11 · 10:40M. Macurak1.8311411113T. Krenek1.83711891LSep 11 · 09:40M. Macurak1.575690D. Pawlik2.251111113LSep 8 · 09:10J. Gembala1.63911811113M. Macurak2.0611311482LSep 8 · 07:40M. Macurak2.10571191J. Gembala1.6711118113WSep 8 · 06:40M. Macurak1.911111123T. Krenek1.8097100WSep 8 · 05:40M. Macurak1.5091111113D. Jr2.50116861WSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991WSep 6 · 19:40D. Skulina1.6711119492M. Macurak2.10771111113WSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113
J. Krupnik10
LSep 11 · 13:05J. Krupnik1.734950D. Pawlik2.001111113WSep 11 · 11:10D. Pawlik2.101171061J. Krupnik1.6761112113WSep 11 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.91711118113T. Krenek1.8011341152WSep 11 · 08:38J. Krupnik1.8091311113T. Krenek1.911111491WSep 11 · 08:10J. Krupnik2.0016117113T. Krenek1.731441171LSep 11 · 06:40A. Vitasek1.73121311153J. Krupnik2.0014115131WSep 11 · 06:10J. Gembala1.6181181152J. Krupnik2.20119116113WSep 10 · 09:20D. Pawlik1.832141161J. Krupnik1.8311162113WSep 10 · 07:45J. Krupnik1.7361213113T. Grmela2.0011101171WSep 10 · 06:45J. Krupnik2.00741111113R. Benes1.7311113662
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