TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13111599
Played Sep 11Finished
Jan Gembala
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811119811116511
Jan Krupnik
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:24 and never touched — 59.2% is still 59.2%
Graded at full timeJan Gembala to win
59.2%
59.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Gembala above · Jan Krupnik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 91 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Jan Gembala at 59.2%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jan Gembala 13–8 Jan Krupnik Jan Krupnik has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:24What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Gembala
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-8 in 21
Gembala
Wrong
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gembala 1733 vs Krupnik 1593
Gembala
Wrong
both rated, 140 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gembala 100% vs Krupnik 80%
Gembala
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gembala 100% vs Krupnik 70%
Gembala
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gembala +5 · Krupnik +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Gembala)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGembala 1.61 / Krupnik 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Gembala)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13111599
Gembala1.61
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 90 of 158
Up 2–0, closes it98% 53 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it79% 70 of 89
Krupnik2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 110 of 222
Down 0–1, comes back30% 27 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGembala6wins
AwayKrupnik4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderGembala leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGembala100%5 of 5
AwayKrupnik80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gembala5Krupnik5n = 10split evenly
S2Gembala9Krupnik1n = 10Gembala took 9 of 10
S3Gembala5Krupnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Gembala6Krupnik2n = 8Gembala took 6 of 8
S5Gembala1Krupnik4n = 5Krupnik took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGembalaKrupnikG − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.237.0+5.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGembalaKrupnikBasisWin rate · lifetime205 / 373 vs 444 / 86355%51.5%205 / 373 vs 444 / 863Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GembalaGembala 1.61/Krupnik 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Gembala · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 06:10J. Gembala—81181152J. Krupnik—119116113
LAug 23 · 20:38J. Gembala—811311102J. Krupnik—115117123
LAug 23 · 17:40J. Gembala—9111211112J. Krupnik—118147133
WAug 18 · 09:40J. Gembala—911119113J. Krupnik—11951182
WMay 23 · 09:40J. Gembala—11811113J. Krupnik—311611
WMay 18 · 07:40J. Gembala—1111113J. Krupnik—7960
WMay 16 · 21:25J. Gembala—12119113J. Krupnik—1091191
LMay 16 · 19:15J. Gembala—41111492J. Krupnik—116611113
WMay 12 · 18:15J. Gembala—11119113J. Krupnik—691151
WMay 11 · 06:15J. Gembala—1111113J. Krupnik—8670
J. Gembala10
WSep 11 · 07:40A. Vitasek1.73117671J. Gembala2.0081111113WSep 11 · 07:10T. Krenek2.107111191J. Gembala1.6711137113WSep 8 · 09:10J. Gembala1.63911811113M. Macurak2.0611311482WSep 8 · 07:40M. Macurak2.10571191J. Gembala1.6711118113WSep 8 · 07:10D. Jr2.63714991J. Gembala1.44111211113WSep 8 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831211113T. Krenek1.8310670WSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113WSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113WSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880
J. Krupnik10
LSep 11 · 06:40A. Vitasek1.73121311153J. Krupnik2.0014115131WSep 10 · 09:20D. Pawlik1.832141161J. Krupnik1.8311162113WSep 10 · 07:45J. Krupnik1.7361213113T. Grmela2.0011101171WSep 10 · 06:45J. Krupnik2.00741111113R. Benes1.7311113662LSep 10 · 05:45J. Krupnik1.6111117592D. Pawlik2.20871111113WSep 8 · 21:15D. Skulina1.7357110J. Krupnik2.001111133WSep 8 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.531111113A. Cizek2.385970LSep 8 · 18:45D. Skulina1.801211143J. Krupnik1.91104120WSep 8 · 18:15J. Lisztwan1.831061151J. Krupnik1.8312119113WSep 7 · 20:45R. Sedlacek1.8311690J. Krupnik1.831311113
Upcoming Matches
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J. Krupnik
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