TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13097820
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Gembala
Home
1.63
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911113811114118
Michal Macurak
Away
2.06
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:48 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeJan Gembala to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Gembala above · Michal Macurak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 87 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Jan Gembala at 55.8%
87 points played in total.
H2H Jan Gembala 2–2 Michal Macurak Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Gembala beat Macurak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (56%)
Gembala
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gembala 1723 vs Macurak 1686
Gembala
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gembala 100% vs Macurak 80%
Gembala
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gembala 100% vs Macurak 70%
Gembala
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gembala +5 · Macurak -1
Gembala
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Gembala)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Macurak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGembala 1.63 / Macurak 2.06
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Gembala)-0.0pp
TT Cup · #13097820
Gembala1.63
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite56% won 86 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it98% 51 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it78% 67 of 86
Macurak2.06
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 69 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back31% 22 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeGembala2wins
AwayMacurak2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGembala66.7%2 of 3
AwayMacurakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gembala3Macurak1n = 4Gembala took 3 of 4
S2Gembala2Macurak2n = 4split evenly
S3Gembala1Macurak3n = 4Macurak took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricGembalaMacurakG − MBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match36.234.5+1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGembalaMacurakBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 369 vs 235 / 46354.7%50.8%202 / 369 vs 235 / 463Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GembalaGembala 1.63/Macurak 2.06
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Gembala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gembala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 8 · 07:40J. Gembala—11118113M. Macurak—571191
LAug 23 · 18:40J. Gembala—111041162M. Macurak—912114113
WAug 18 · 11:40J. Gembala—1111113M. Macurak—7770
LMar 29 · 19:15J. Gembala—106130M. Macurak—1211153
J. Gembala10
WSep 8 · 07:40M. Macurak2.10571191J. Gembala1.6711118113WSep 8 · 07:10D. Jr2.63714991J. Gembala1.44111211113WSep 8 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831211113T. Krenek1.8310670WSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113WSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113WSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880WSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171WSep 1 · 15:40M. Zaskodny1.44109111162J. Gembala2.63121189113WSep 1 · 15:10D. Skulina2.254860J. Gembala1.571111113
M. Macurak10
LSep 8 · 07:40M. Macurak2.10571191J. Gembala1.6711118113WSep 8 · 06:40M. Macurak1.911111123T. Krenek1.8097100WSep 8 · 05:40M. Macurak1.5091111113D. Jr2.50116861WSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991WSep 6 · 19:40D. Skulina1.6711119492M. Macurak2.10771111113WSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113WSep 6 · 18:10M. Macurak1.7311101112153J. Travnicek2.00312614132LSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113LSep 5 · 12:15M. Macurak1.618770E. Precek2.201111113WSep 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.6171180M. Macurak2.201113113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.