TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13115028
Played Sep 11Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411911511––––
Dominik Pawlik
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:52 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 51 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Jan Krupnik at 58.1%
51 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 18–13 Dominik Pawlik Dominik Pawlik has won 13 of their 31 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Krupnik beat Pawlik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:52What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Krupnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-13 in 31
Krupnik
Wrong
gap of 5 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1669 vs Pawlik 1620
Krupnik
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 100% vs Pawlik 60%
Krupnik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 90% vs Pawlik 70%
Krupnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik +5 · Pawlik +1
Krupnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Krupnik) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.73 / Pawlik 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Krupnik)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13115028
Krupnik1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 154 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it95% 69 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it72% 110 of 152
Pawlik2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 60 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back22% 15 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik6wins
AwayPawlik4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKrupnik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik80%4 of 5
AwayPawlik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik5Pawlik5n = 10split evenly
S2Krupnik9Pawlik1n = 10Krupnik took 9 of 10
S3Krupnik3Pawlik7n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S4Krupnik5Pawlik3n = 8Krupnik took 5 of 8
S5Krupnik2Pawlik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikPawlikK − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.737.4+1.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime449 / 868 vs 233 / 46251.7%50.4%449 / 868 vs 233 / 462Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.73/Pawlik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.9%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 05:45J. Krupnik—11117592D. Pawlik—871111113
LSep 3 · 10:40J. Krupnik—611561D. Pawlik—11611113
WAug 25 · 07:10J. Krupnik—1111113D. Pawlik—7590
WAug 19 · 08:15J. Krupnik—911411113D. Pawlik—11611962
WAug 14 · 08:48J. Krupnik—1111113D. Pawlik—7980
LAug 14 · 05:40J. Krupnik—411101182D. Pawlik—117127113
LAug 12 · 11:10J. Krupnik—711981D. Pawlik—11811113
WAug 6 · 10:45J. Krupnik—11118123D. Pawlik—5811101
WAug 3 · 09:08J. Krupnik—11114113D. Pawlik—691171
WAug 3 · 06:10J. Krupnik—941111113D. Pawlik—11119392
J. Krupnik10
WSep 11 · 11:40M. Macurak1.6161111732J. Krupnik2.20117811113WSep 11 · 11:10D. Pawlik2.101171061J. Krupnik1.6761112113WSep 11 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.91711118113T. Krenek1.8011341152WSep 11 · 08:38J. Krupnik1.8091311113T. Krenek1.911111491WSep 11 · 08:10J. Krupnik2.0016117113T. Krenek1.731441171LSep 11 · 06:40A. Vitasek1.73121311153J. Krupnik2.0014115131WSep 11 · 06:10J. Gembala1.6181181152J. Krupnik2.20119116113WSep 10 · 09:20D. Pawlik1.832141161J. Krupnik1.8311162113WSep 10 · 07:45J. Krupnik1.7361213113T. Grmela2.0011101171WSep 10 · 06:45J. Krupnik2.00741111113R. Benes1.7311113662
D. Pawlik10
WSep 11 · 12:10T. Krenek1.737650D. Pawlik2.001111113LSep 11 · 11:10D. Pawlik2.101171061J. Krupnik1.6761112113WSep 11 · 09:40M. Macurak1.575690D. Pawlik2.251111113LSep 10 · 09:20D. Pawlik1.832141161J. Krupnik1.8311162113WSep 10 · 08:15R. Benes1.83491111102D. Pawlik1.83111198123WSep 10 · 07:15D. Pawlik1.731111113T. Grmela2.005960WSep 10 · 05:45J. Krupnik1.6111117592D. Pawlik2.20871111113WSep 9 · 09:19D. Pawlik1.801113113R. Benes1.9171190WSep 9 · 08:10D. Pawlik1.83111212113L. Lasota1.834101441LSep 9 · 06:40R. Benes1.73111197113D. Pawlik2.0089111142
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