TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13112463
Played Sep 11Finished
Tomas Krenek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611511––––
Dominik Pawlik
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Krenek above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 51 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Tomas Krenek at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krenek 13–11 Dominik Pawlik Dominik Pawlik has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:43What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Krenek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-11 in 24
Krenek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krenek 1551 vs Pawlik 1608
Pawlik
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krenek 0% vs Pawlik 60%
Pawlik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krenek 20% vs Pawlik 70%
Pawlik
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krenek -5 · Pawlik -1
Krenek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krenek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krenek form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrenek 1.73 / Pawlik 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krenek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13112463
Krenek1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 128 of 237
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it74% 87 of 117
Pawlik2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 60 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back22% 15 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrenek5wins
AwayPawlik5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrenek50%3 of 6
AwayPawlik50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krenek6Pawlik4n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S2Krenek4Pawlik6n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S3Krenek5Pawlik5n = 10split evenly
S4Krenek5Pawlik3n = 8Krenek took 5 of 8
S5Krenek3Pawlik4n = 7Pawlik took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrenekPawlikK − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.742.4−1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrenekPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime453 / 902 vs 232 / 46150.2%50.3%453 / 902 vs 232 / 461Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekKrenek 1.73/Pawlik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek—119119133D. Pawlik—611911112
LSep 2 · 09:15T. Krenek—11151192D. Pawlik—711117113
LSep 2 · 05:45T. Krenek—11213682D. Pawlik—6111111113
WAug 25 · 05:40T. Krenek—1111113D. Pawlik—5980
WAug 24 · 09:03T. Krenek—511911113D. Pawlik—11511652
LAug 24 · 05:40T. Krenek—65161292D. Pawlik—11111410113
WAug 21 · 11:15T. Krenek—11116133D. Pawlik—9411111
WAug 19 · 06:15T. Krenek—1211113113D. Pawlik—14471182
LAug 12 · 12:10T. Krenek—9490D. Pawlik—1111113
LAug 10 · 07:10T. Krenek—11451172D. Pawlik—911118113
T. Krenek10
LSep 11 · 12:33M. Macurak1.831111116113T. Krenek1.8361381192LSep 11 · 10:40M. Macurak1.8311411113T. Krenek1.83711891LSep 11 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.91711118113T. Krenek1.8011341152LSep 11 · 08:38J. Krupnik1.8091311113T. Krenek1.911111491LSep 11 · 08:10J. Krupnik2.0016117113T. Krenek1.731441171LSep 11 · 07:10T. Krenek2.107111191J. Gembala1.6711137113LSep 11 · 05:40A. Vitasek1.5311117113T. Krenek2.38961181LSep 8 · 13:05T. Krenek1.91124581J. Skvrna1.80101111113LSep 8 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.731171011123T. Krenek2.00811129102WSep 8 · 11:10T. Kindl1.831291191T. Krenek1.83101113113
D. Pawlik10
WSep 11 · 13:05J. Krupnik1.734950D. Pawlik2.001111113LSep 11 · 11:10D. Pawlik2.101171061J. Krupnik1.6761112113WSep 11 · 09:40M. Macurak1.575690D. Pawlik2.251111113LSep 10 · 09:20D. Pawlik1.832141161J. Krupnik1.8311162113WSep 10 · 08:15R. Benes1.83491111102D. Pawlik1.83111198123WSep 10 · 07:15D. Pawlik1.731111113T. Grmela2.005960WSep 10 · 05:45J. Krupnik1.6111117592D. Pawlik2.20871111113WSep 9 · 09:19D. Pawlik1.801113113R. Benes1.9171190WSep 9 · 08:10D. Pawlik1.83111212113L. Lasota1.834101441LSep 9 · 06:40R. Benes1.73111197113D. Pawlik2.0089111142
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