TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124954
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8118111191113––
Radek Benes
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 82 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Radek Benes at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 9–18 Radek Benes Michal Macurak has won 9 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:51What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-18 in 27
Benes
Correct
gap of 9 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1687 vs Benes 1537
Macurak
Wrong
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 60% vs Benes 20%
Macurak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 50% vs Benes 20%
Macurak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak -1 · Benes -4
Benes
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 2.00 / Benes 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Benes)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13124954
Macurak2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 58 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back29% 20 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Benes1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 172 of 302
Up 2–0, closes it94% 72 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it75% 115 of 154
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMacurak3wins
AwayBenes7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak42.9%3 of 7
AwayBenes100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak7Benes3n = 10Macurak took 7 of 10
S2Macurak5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S3Macurak3Benes7n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S4Macurak1Benes6n = 7Benes took 6 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMacurakBenesM − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.937.2+0.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 473 vs 489 / 94250.7%51.9%240 / 473 vs 489 / 942Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesMacurak 2.00/Benes 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 21:08M. Macurak35119781R. Benes4071111113
LAug 23 · 18:10M. Macurak45111212101R. Benes4661414123
WAug 23 · 14:42M. Macurak331111113R. Benes175570
LAug 13 · 11:45M. Macurak4412117141R. Benes4714611163
LAug 9 · 15:15M. Macurak46111411101R. Benes4651613123
LAug 5 · 11:40M. Macurak27115291R. Benes4291111113
WAug 3 · 14:15M. Macurak46121112113R. Benes351061451
WAug 3 · 12:15M. Macurak331111113R. Benes218760
LJul 28 · 12:10M. Macurak208660R. Benes331111113
LJul 28 · 08:10M. Macurak501011111082R. Benes45121912113
M. Macurak10
LSep 13 · 13:40M. Macurak1.71131112141D. Jr2.0015914163WSep 12 · 13:10M. Macurak1.701131111123D. Jr2.05911713102LSep 12 · 11:40M. Macurak2.2012970J. Pribyl1.611411113WSep 12 · 10:40M. Macurak1.831111113A. Kanak1.838780WSep 12 · 09:40M. Macurak1.531111113D. Jr2.389760WSep 11 · 12:33M. Macurak1.831111116113T. Krenek1.8361381192LSep 11 · 11:40M. Macurak1.6161111732J. Krupnik2.20117811113WSep 11 · 10:40M. Macurak1.8311411113T. Krenek1.83711891LSep 11 · 09:40M. Macurak1.575690D. Pawlik2.251111113LSep 8 · 09:10J. Gembala1.63911811113M. Macurak2.0611311482
R. Benes10
LSep 13 · 14:10J. Krupnik1.66111112113R. Benes2.05691491LSep 11 · 16:45R. Benes3.255880J. Pribyl1.331111113LSep 11 · 16:15R. Benes2.2588110F. Chaloupka1.571111133LSep 11 · 14:45B. Moravec1.6711211113R. Benes2.10911771WSep 11 · 14:15J. Pribyl1.91911129122R. Benes1.801171011143LSep 10 · 08:50R. Benes1.8084100T. Grmela1.911111123LSep 10 · 08:15R. Benes1.83491111102D. Pawlik1.83111198123LSep 10 · 06:45J. Krupnik2.00741111113R. Benes1.7311113662WSep 10 · 06:15T. Grmela1.73561781R. Benes2.00111115113LSep 9 · 12:39R. Benes1.4091270L. Kantor2.751114113
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